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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BGR who wrote (48196)	2/21/1999 6:16:00 PM
From: accountclosed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

I had been working on a response to your earlier post about contrary opinion being useful and welcome. I think that your discussion has been useful and welcome. However, I wish to agree to the extent that I have and disagree to the extent that I have. And leave it at that.

To: BGR who wrote (48196)	2/22/1999 9:54:00 AM
From: Mike M2	Respond to of 132070

BGR, one issue with EMH is although information may be know not everyone reacts or interprets it the same way. The rate of growth for pcs has been slowing for some time and the bulls hoped that Asia would pick up the slack but it has not. The bears recognized that SEA was suffering from excess debt and capacity the bulls saw it as a "glitch in the road" . The accounting for stock options ( see Forbes May 18? or 23 1998) is another example where information has been widely disseminated but the bulls chose to ignore it or say valuation of the options would be difficult. The bears clearly understand that to the extent this understates employee compensation cost profits are overstated. Another example is the earnings expectations game where the analysts lower the estimates as the quarter progresses so the company can easily beat the estimate. The bulls look at the headline that the company beat the estimate the bears see it as one of many tricks in a desperate attempt to keep the party going. In short much of the information presented to the public has a bullish bias and spin because it comes from those who have a vested interest in the continuation of the bull market. IMO EMH is academic nonsense. Mike