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Technology Stocks : Advanced Fibre (AFCI) ** IPO -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nick Papa who wrote (1819)	2/21/1999 9:53:00 PM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Respond to of 3299

Nick, My technical service list the ST stochastics at 20 and LT at 27, which both flash "oversold" The OBOS Rating has improved to a +4on a +6 to a -6 scale (it's a buy right now), Bollinger Bands are neutral in terms of a sharp price move either up or down at 45 right now (need to drop intot he +20 range to presage a sharp move in either direction) , Power Rating is +57 (on a +90 to -60 scale) which is just a touch below the +60 buy level.... This cumulatively says to me "oversold" with selling drying up. IMO AFCI will not visit $4-5 price range again unless news deteriorates. In fact the volume acelaration at the close and then the friday finish right at the day's high confirms IMO that you have institutional accumulation of AFCI.... Let's see what's said fundamentally at thursday conference appearance. Fundamentally demand is strong across the fiber- related portion of the telcomm industry right now.. Sincerely, Doug F.

To: Nick Papa who wrote (1819)	2/21/1999 10:00:00 PM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Respond to of 3299

Nick, A little industry background... Analysts Post Global Forecasts for Local Loop Growth Posted February 19, 1999 02:00 PM PST Independent analyst group, Ovum Inc. has released research that charts the growth of the global local loop market. Analysts anticipate the number of local loop lines installed each year to grow from 72 million during 1998 to reach 195 million by 2005. Total global spend on access technologies in 1998 was $23 billion, of which 37% was in the US. The findings are available from Ovum, Inc. in a new report, The Future of the Local Loop: Market Strategies. According to Ovum, strong growth in data communications, fueled by the Internet, is the single most important driver. Other drivers include the development of alternative technologies, regulatory encouragement for access competition, and the increasing importance of mobility "The key competitive battleground in telecoms in the foreseeable future will be the provision of broadband lines," says Adrian May, a senior analyst at Ovum Inc. "Long gone are the days when operators could differentiate themselves on tariffs alone - today the challenge is to be the first to provide bandwidth at cost effective prices. This is driving a huge demand for broadband technologies." Key regional developments include: Americas: Market downturn resulting from the Asia-Pacific currency crisis will end this year and recovery will start to become apparent. The number of broadband lines installed per year will grow from under 2 million in 1998 to over 20 million by 2005. Europe: The narrowband local loop market will fall quickly after peaking at 60 million new lines in 2003. The broadband market will grow steadily throughout, with over 23 million new lines installed in 2005. Asia-Pacific: The local loop market in Asia Pacific will continue to be severely affected by the economic crisis. However, from 2000-2005 there will be a steady increase in broadband lines to over 20 million lines per year by 2005. Middle East/Africa: After 1999 broadband connections will steadily grow to 5 million per year by 2005. According to The Future of the Local Loop: Market Strategies, new broadband lines will initially be dominated by fiber to business customers. However, the larger market for the next century will be broadband to residential customers. ADSL will suffice for residential customers but most business customers will want fiber lines. The use of VDSL will remain limited. _____________________ The Future of the Local Loop: Markets and Strategies is the fifth report in the series, The Local Loop: Concise Market Analysis. The reports cover all aspects of local loop developments and strategy and are available immediately from Ovum Inc. at $4,625, or individually at $1,550. Ovum is an independent information technology and telecommunications analyst group, providing high quality, authoritative information and advice on key market, technical and regulatory developments. Ovum funds its own research and accepts no sponsorship from vendors or interest groups.

To: Nick Papa who wrote (1819)	2/21/1999 10:34:00 PM
From: P314159d	Respond to of 3299

Thanks for the honest report, Nick I follow pretty much those inidicators as well. But I like BBs to give me early change of direction moves sometinmes and I don't like the quick change Friday for that except the daily BB had a buyside break for the second day in a row. First time in 6 months. So i go for the buy at the first 30 min cross at 9 1/4. I hat e to to do that on expiration, some time it works and some times I give up som money. This being cheap I am ready t add. I think I mentioned the weekly rollover for the MACD for the 4 area. But, i don't think that we retrace much on this move. i think we can stay here without that indicator going south. But if the NAz breaks, all bets are offf. 95% cash is smart , just be nimble. I like the short side over cash. But ready to cover this week