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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: bill meehan who wrote (48220)2/21/1999 10:45:00 PM
From: Don Lloyd  Respond to of 132070
 
Bill - (...I'm optimistic that our system will last, and the economy grow, although that runs against history over the very long-term...)

When Bill Gates, Ted Turner and Warren Buffet all seem to agree that the World's #1 problem is overpopulation, a contrary view is appropriate. Such a view is contained in Peter G. Peterson's new book 'Gray Dawn', dealing with Global Aging. Fertility in (almost) every developed country has already fallen below the replacement level of 2.1. (Children per woman over a lifetime).

US - 2.0
UK - 1.7
France - 1.6
Canada - 1.6
Japan - 1.4
Germany - 1.3
Italy - 1.2

Along with increasing longevity, this implies an ever increasingly unsustainable pension load on the economy, even ignoring a limitless demand for increasing health care of all types.

Of course, the probable outcome is political/economic collapse as the unfunded promises cannot be fulfilled to the increasingly numerically and politically dominant beneficiaries simply following their own self interest.

Regards, Don



To: bill meehan who wrote (48220)2/21/1999 11:21:00 PM
From: Bonnie Bear  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 132070
 
Am I missing something?
I see gross overvaluation in the Nifty Fifty, techs and internets.
But there's a bunch of stuff that seems grossly undervalued--- anything not tied to an index. I get a 7% monthly dividend in DNP with its bucket of utility stocks, I get a 8% monthly dividend out of RFI and its bucket of REITs. And the whole sector of stocks less than $300M market cap is selling at 1990 recession prices. It's really hard for me to be bearish on this stuff...If Mr Market hates taxable dividends this much, I'm happy to take them in my IRA.
The only outfit making money off my use of the internet is my local utility companies. My phone company is my ISP provider and my electric utility powers my macintosh.



To: bill meehan who wrote (48220)2/22/1999 11:39:00 PM
From: BGR  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 132070
 
Bill,

I now understand where we disagree. While I prefer to leave valuation to the market, you prefer to analyze market sentiments to decide your investment philosophy. The problem is that you present no objective and verifiable way to analyze market sentiments and the points that you have raised were probably mostly valid a year or two back (albeit in a different scale) as well.

-BGR.