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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigBull who wrote (37942)	2/21/1999 11:28:00 PM
From: Razorbak	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Top 10 Reasons to Invest in Oil & Gas Service Stocks by Chicken Little 10) Thirteen countries collapsing! (Venezuela, Ecuador, Colombia, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, Peru, Bolivia, Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uraguay, and Mexico) 9) Two nations completely "cease to exist"! (Indonesia + Nigeria... Poof!!!) 8) Three welfare "states" collapse! (Alaska, Norway, & Scotland) 7) Two Middle Eastern regimes deposed! (Saudi Arabia + Kuwait) 6) Palestinians cut off! (And no doubt dead!) 5) Worldwide debt repudiated! 4) Financial crises reign! 3) War in the Middle East! 2) U.S. no longer has cheap oil! 1) The Sky is Falling! The Sky is Falling! I say DON'T wait till Spring. Get your tulips now while they're still cheap!!! ;^) Razor

To: BigBull who wrote (37942)	2/22/1999 12:29:00 AM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

BigBull, Good Section today in the Sunday Midland-Reporter Telegram- details outlook/ plans of most producers in the Permian Basin (roughly 100+ E&P companies interviewed). Definitely worth going to the local newsstand and purchasing for all of the raw data here. For OS companies I reprint the first section of the 1999 Outlook. The Outlook goes on for four pages and I'm too bad of a typer to type the whole thing, and also do not have a scanner handy- but note: "Production-Have you shut in wells, if so will you shut in more. What is the critical posted price for your operations? Nearly every operator has shut in some production, but apparently nothing radical at this moment, unless one considers Texaco's Mabee CO2 Project which was turned off. However the number of wells shut in could increase in the future as many wells begin to face serious workovers and repairs. Expensive repairs or workovers are the main criteria used by most operators for shutting in a well. If it goes down and cannot pay for repirs in 90 days, it stays down, says Danny Kellum, Vice President for US operations for Pioneer Natural Resources. Because there are so many variables affecting the economics of each well- production, sour or sweet, corrosion and chemicals, water cut etc.,- operators say that there is no such thing as a critical posted price where all production is shut in.... Capital Budgets What is your total capital budget for 1999. How does this compare to 1998. Was your 1999 budget revised downward? Capital budgets where they exist are a mere shadow of former budgets. The average reduction would probably be 50 percent of last year. Nearly all capital projects other than drilling- waterfloods, CO2,gas plants pipelines, etc., have been put on hold according to operators." ____________ Lots of interesting facts here. For the Permian Basin, it looks like production will do a slow continual fade as workover operations are deferred. Thus OS service companies will get hit as well repairs and workovers are delayed. In turn once prices firm the service workload should spike as companies move to repair all of the wells idled in order to save workover dollars? Also it looks like drilling is the "sacred cow" at least in the Permian Basin. Whenever limited capital dollars are allocated, they go to actual drilling.....

To: BigBull who wrote (37942)	2/22/1999 11:52:00 AM
From: Mike from La.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

BigB Add to your list the growing tensions between Iran and its population. The religious conservative government is increasing using more repressive means to silence critics against it. It came out that their Intelligence Dep't had a death squad killing moderate leaders. When a government uses those types of actions, purely for political reasons, that is to protect it's position, it shows two things. First, it feels threatened. Second it is losing it's legitimacy to rule its people. Growing numbers of the population are rejecting the rulers' position that they rule because they were chosen by God to do so. Iran has a elected moderate president who is actively opposed to the conservatives, so the conservatives do not have total political power. Katami, the president, keeps making sure that liberal newspapers keep publishing. The conservatives are most afraid of that, they know their grip is slipping, and popular protest against them, reported by the news media, is the most potent weapon against them. They responded in true fanatic fashion, they have started treating their population as enemies of the State, therefore feeding more popular resentment, which they cannot silence. Meanwhile the Government is also pursuing its foreign policy of combating the Sunni's and I believe that war has now spread into Iraq. We may be seeing the most visible attempt by Iran in Iraq to gain influence with the reaction to the assassination of the Shi'ite clerics. This has to have the US, the Saudi's and Kuwait nervous, yet they cannot aid their fellow Sunni, Saddam, against the Shi'ite majority, for obvious reasons. The whole area is under tremendous stress. Low oil prices, plus distractions elsewhere has induced complacency towards the dangers all this presents to the flow of oil. Mike