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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (18991)	2/22/1999 12:52:00 AM
From: VLAD	Respond to of 23519

Kahuna, I don't have a lot of time but I think I will work this one backwards: <<His "game strategy" is usually to attack one's honesty...>> Funny how the Kahuna attacks me predicting an attack so that he can show everyone how right he really is. Sorry, wont happen. Everyone here knows your agenda Kahuna so there is little point in discussing that matter further. <<You are probably the only Pharma investor who references Dr Sidney Wolfe to tout a stock.>> I would hardly describe my references to Dr Wolfe as a tout for Vivus. Instead I see it as a means of exposing the corruption behind big pharma in the United States today. Real men are dying thanks to the rush job Pfizer got away with in getting Viagra fast track approval without testing Viagra in the at risk group. I know you don't care so long as Pfizer makes good profits. You are a sick sick man Kahuna. Your Karma is your very own. <<It should be noted that MUSE recieved expidited review by the FDA. Under your game theory do you believe the FDA got paid off.>> There you go again Kahuna, twisting and turning my words to your satisfaction. It seems to me that the Kahuna is ignoring all the obvious facts behind MUSE fast track approval. Such as the fact that before MUSE was approved, alprostidal was already FDA approved and on the market for over a year via UpJohn's Caverject. Aloprostidal was proven safe and effective long before Vivus submitted it's NDA. Vivus was getting approval for the delivery method more than anything else. Alprostidal is a prostiglandin naturally produced by the human body. Sildenafil on the other hand is a synthetically produced chemical. Had the FDA NOT granted Vivus fast track approval I would say that something was fishy. <<If you really believe that big pharma is so powerful and companies like Vivus are so helpless, why did you invest in a "small company that can't afford to spend money on political campaigns.">> I invested in Vivus because of an interest in the ED market. I believed in the product(still do) but I must confess that I did not focus enough on the management. My initial investment in Vivus was just after the December 10, 1997 gap down and I believe that up until that time Vivus management's only weakness appeared to be an inability to produce enough MUSE to keep up with demand. This in fact appeared to me as a good sign in that the demand for MUSE was present and strong. My distaste for big pharma's methods of getting their way via spending millions of dollars on political campaigns and Washington lobbyists has NOTHING to do with my decision to invest in Vivus. Your NY Times link: techstocks.com is an excellent demonstration of just how lazy and ignorant the majority of the consuming American public really is. Can't say I disagree with that article. Sad but true are the views in that article. Just goes to show you how important it is for patients to slow down a bit and be a little more educated about what they put into their bodies. As far as the black boxing of Viagra goes I believe that Pfizer will fight tooth and nail to prevent such an event. If Viagra is black boxed it will be the begining of an ugly legal battle for Pfizer because it would contradict many claims earlier made by Pfizer touting the safety of Viagra. It would also make the FDA look like a bunch of unethical incompetent fools so I doubt they would be too quick to admitt to their errors. I do believe though that Viagra will indeed be eventually black boxed. I don't know exactly how high the body count is going to have to get before the public safety finally gets priority over big pharma profits. I'm a patient man Kahuna. After all I DO own Vivus stock! Once again Kahuna, in my expert medical opinion the black boxing of Viagra should read something like: DUE TO ITS HYPOTENSIVE EFFECTS, VIAGRA SHOULD NOT BE PRESCRIBED TO PATIENTS WITH UNDERLYING CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE. DOCTORS NEED TO DETERMINE THEIR PATIENTS CARDIOVASCULAR STATUS BEFORE PRESCRIBING VIAGRA.

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (18991)	2/22/1999 12:58:00 AM
From: 777 Captain	Respond to of 23519

Somebody finally did the correlation numbers. Thank you. I'm purely speculating that VVUS WILL enter into some sort of marketing agreement within (hopefully) six months. It is pure speculation. I'm a little concerned about the apparent inability of VVUS to put something together. That is my biggest concern, e.g., that VVUS management values the company more highly than some well qualified potential partners. Regards. PS: you know things are slow when somebody has the time to go out and count postings!!

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (18991)	2/22/1999 2:43:00 PM
From: DaiS	Respond to of 23519

BigK, >>Since the launch of Viagra, the correlation between MUSE weekly Rxs and the price of VVUS is a very high positive .72. The correlation between the price of VVUS and MUSE Refill Rxs is even higher (.82).>> This is supposed to be fun so I don't want to seem too serious... but the coefficient of determination, the square of 0.72 is 0.52 for total scripts. Following your approach this would mean that the % of the variation in Vivus share price explainable by variation in script numbers is 52%. This leaves 48% to be explained by other causes...plenty of room for MMs and conspiracies and so on... This aside it is necessary to recognise that the two variables are serially autocorrelated. I mean eg the share price is not jumping up and down from 2.5 to 30 then to 5 to 15 to 20 to 3...week by week. The values in successive weeks are correlated. This means that we can have little statistical confidence in the values of the above correlations becasue values in successive weeks are not independent. Really we do not know much more than that the scripts went down and that the share price went down. You have I think often pointed out this correlation between Vivus share price and muse specification. Given a correlation it is reasonable to hypothesize that one is a cause of the other. I just wanted to point out that this generalisation may be false. This is because in Europe, in circumstances where muse and viagra are both available, muse specification is more robust and approaches that of viagra (34% versus 37%). The Astra revenue trends support this (17% decline Q3 to Q4). So if you are right about cause and effect there needs to be the qualification that this applies to the US market. In this circumstance it is interesting that US investors have not been encouraged to buy Vivus shares by the good news from Europe. DaiS