Clinton's Plan Protects His Fellow Boomers, Not Their Children
By Morton M. Kondracke
Roll Call
The nation's foremost baby boomer, President Clinton is proposing to save
Social Security and Medicare for his own generation, but not the next one.
Clinton's program to reserve budget surpluses would extend Medicare's
solvency from 2008 to 2015 and Social Security's -- maybe -- from 2030 to 2054.
The plan is more responsible than one might expect from self-indulgent
boomers, but it doesn't begin to secure the retirement of their children.
For instance, Clinton himself, now 52, will be eligible for full retirement benefits
in 2011 and, if he lives to be 85, will keep getting them until 2031, assuming
someone figures out how to keep extending the life of Medicare that long.
But it'll take a President other than him to ensure that his daughter, Chelsea,
now 19, has full benefits during her retirement years beginning in 2045.
Last week, Clinton told an audience of college students that he'd save Social
Security and Medicare for them, but to do so he'd have to reform the programs
instead of just pour money into them.
Almost certainly, saving the two programs for Generation X will also involve
some tax increases and benefits cuts, which Clinton could afford to recommend
as a politician who has no more elections to face.
And, to establish a real legacy, he should start some serious thinking about the
enormous problem of financing long-term care for the aged, whose nursing
home expenses may equal Social Security costs by 2030.
Republicans, backed by the General Accounting Office, claim Clinton's plan
won't even extend Social Security's solvency because he's "double counting"
surpluses already derived from Social Security taxes.
And some Republicans wonder whether Clinton is really interested in saving
Social Security and Medicare at all -- except as 2000 campaign issues for the
Democratic Party.
The body language from the White House, though, is that he actually would
like to cut a Social Security deal with Republicans this year, while leaving
Medicare unresolved for political exploitation next year.
Medicare should be the administration's first priority, since it is due to go
bankrupt in fewer than 10 years, but indications are Clinton is making it ever
more difficult to get a agreement on long-term reform.
Clinton is proposing to reserve 15 percent of future budget surpluses to extend
Medicare's solvency from 2008 to 2015, but he has no plan to keep it going
beyond that.
Sen. John Breaux (D-La.), chairman of a bipartisan commission on Medicare, is
pushing a proposal to change Medicare from a "guaranteed benefit" program
tightly run by the government to a "premium support" plan modeled on the
Federal Employees Health Benefit System.
Under the Breaux plan, which has the support of the commission's eight
Republicans plus Sen. Bob Kerrey (D-Neb.), retirees would get funds from the
government to purchase health insurance in a regulated private market.
Reports issued last week by the commission's staff and by the Congressional
Budget Office indicated that competition engendered by Breaux's plan -- plus
other reforms like means-testing benefits -- would save as much as $850 billion a
year by 2030, when the program is scheduled to cost at least $2.2 trillion.
The Breaux plan is opposed by five of the commission's other seven Democrats,
who favor maintaining the current system's government control and support for
traditional fee-for-service medicine rather than managed care.
To issue any definitive report, Breaux and the commission's co-chairman, Rep.
Bill Thomas (R-Calif.), need 11 votes. The balance of power lies with two
Clinton appointees, Brandeis professor Stuart Altman and former White House
aide Laura D'Andrea Tyson, who has returned to the University of California at
Berkeley.
Thomas says that remarks by Altman and Tyson indicate to him that "the
harder Breaux works to satisfy them, the more they move the goal posts."
The main sticking point now is Clinton and other Democrats' demand that
Medicare cover prescription drugs for seniors.
Breaux and Thomas support coverage for poor and near-poor retirees, but not
for those who can afford their own Medigap insurance -- 65 percent of current
retirees.
Democrats want everyone covered -- without saying how they'd pay the huge
cost -- and Thomas suspects they "are salivating to campaign on the theme,
'You want prescription drugs, vote Democratic.'"
Breaux and Thomas plan to introduce their plan in Congress even if the
commission reaches no agreement, but its chances of passage are grim without
Clinton's support.
On Social Security, meanwhile, there is bipartisan agreement that 62 percent of
future budget surpluses should be reserved to keep the retirement plan solvent.
But besides quarreling over whether this will extend the system's solvency,
Republicans and Democrats are at odds over how to invest some Social
Security funds in the stock market to gain bigger returns.
Given all the substantive disagreements, partisan distrust and 2000
maneuvering going on, plus the Republicans' thin Congressional majorities, it'll
be a miracle if any long-term retirement reforms pass this year.
America's first boomer President and the last Congress of the 20th century
probably will not binge away budget surpluses. That's good, but they'll likely
miss their chance for a long-term legacy.
>>>I don't even think he protects SS for the boomers. It's only
>>>protected for the retirees and the near-retirees (60-65). He's
>>>proposed shifting even more money from the boomers (SS surplus)
>>>to the boomer parents (Medicare). |
