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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chris Carlson who wrote (22974)	2/22/1999 10:32:00 AM
From: Mr.Fun	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 77400

As you suspect, Mr. Jubak's numbers are totally wrong. The calculations with the actual EPS w/o extraordinary charges: Last 4 quarters EPS w/o extraordinaries = $1.32 Next 4 quarters based on consensus = $1.62 Implied EPS growth rate = 22.7% Trailing P/E multiple at $96.25/share = 72.9 Feb 2000 price using Jubak's 50.7 P/E = $82.125 Implied return = -14.5% Feb 2000 price using 72.9 P/E = $118.1 Implied return = 22.7% (duh) Growth in EPS implied by Jubak's $2.39 = 81% EPS needed to hit Jubak's 26% growth = $1.66 EPS needed to hit 30% growth = $1.72 Questions raised by Jubak's mistakes - Can CSCO sustain a 73 P/E that is 3 times their expected earnings growth rate and a third above historical levels? Can CSCO beat consensus badly enough to deliver strong stock performance, even if their multiple contracts?