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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (48264)	2/22/1999 6:08:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 132070

To All, "The High Tech Strategist" Review. I got my Jan issue one day before the Feb issue was here. <g> Fred is taking some family time and is publishing early. Or, so he claims. I think he is just quick to market due to the meltdowns at Dell and Hewlett. <g> 1. All I will say about the Jan issue is that Fred is predicting a big miss at Dell. That was a great pick. Wish I'd known about BEFORE they reported. <g> The Feb issue was one of the best and my comments will concern that one. 2. More on Ingram's disappearing sales growth. Ingram is the largest distributor of pc boxes in the world. Inventories are up 37% from 4Q. Uh, 4Q is the seasonally strongest one. Remember when Earlie told us that the channel is not exactly unstuffed after the Xmas sales? Always great at making the analogy, Fred notes that $100 to $150 million of Intel's 4th quarter sales bonanza are sitting in inventory, unsold. My question is, are they unsellable? Not if prices are lowered enough. More cutting ahead. 3. The strong first half sales of boxes due to Y2K has not yet appeared. As Compucom said, "the corporate market apparently has not read the Forrester memo." Forrester was the guy predicting huge 1st half sales due to Y2K and every bull on SI fell for it. 4. Intel is building inventory at a rapid pace, since their shareholders aren't smart enough to notice it. The first comment was Fred's and I editorialized a bit on the second. <g> 5. Fred predicts that PC makers are not only going to see lower profit growth, but massive PE ratio contractions. 6. Y2K lawsuits are being ignored by the market. IBM is obviously the flavor of the century on that one. 7. Fred reported that he saw MU 64 Mbit chips selling for less than $9. A couple of weeks ago I had a tipoff about the same phenomenon. Since I couldn't give more info without violating a confidence, which I only do when I am careless <g>, I didn't pound the table. Fred also sees 20 million chips in MU's inventory. I must be reading it wrong. That sounds like a lot to me. <g> Good Luck, MB 3.