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To: JRI who wrote (103663)	2/22/1999 11:07:00 AM
From: Mohan Marette	Respond to of 176387

<Economy>US economic growth seen solid through 1999-survey John: Steady as she goes! That is pretty strong numbers they got going there,well so much for the doom & gloom,eh? ======================= NEW YORK, Feb 22 (Reuters) - Professional forecasters have raised their estimates of 1999 U.S. economic growth while at the same time lowering their inflation expectations, according to a survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The 33 economists polled for the regional Fed bank's quarterly survey, on average, projected an annualized Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 3.2 percent for 1999, well above the 2.1-percent rate projected in the November survey. Real GDP should grow at a 3.0-percent pace in the first quarter and a 2.7-percent rate in the second quarter, the economists predicted. According to the latest government data, GDP rose 3.9 percent in 1998. The economists did forecast a slowdown for 2000, calling for 2.3-percent growth. But they forecast lower odds of economic contraction during any quarter of 1999 than they had in November. At the same time, they lowered their inflation forecasts, calling for annualized Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth of 1.9 percent in the first quarter and 2.0 percent for all of 1999. Previously, forecasters had expected a 2.2-percent CPI gain for the year. The analysts foresaw generally steady interest rates. They projected the three-month bill rate would average 4.4 percent in 1999, matching the 4.4-percent average expected for the first quarter. And they forecast the 10-year Treasury note's yield would average 4.8 percent in the first quarter and 4.9 percent in 1999. The following is a breakdown of the survey's highlights: annual average Q1 99 Q2 99 Q3 99 Q4 99 Q1 00 99 00 Real GDP 3.0 2.7 1.9 2.4 2.4 3.2 2.3 CPI 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.3 Jobless rate 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.7 3-mo T-bill 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 10-yr T-note 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.1 4.9 5.2