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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: peter michaelson who wrote (8061)	2/22/1999 2:24:00 PM
From: DMaA	Respond to of 9980

There is a union in the Twin Cities running adds that indicate to me that they "get it". The adds for this tile laying union emphasize the value obtained by using it's members due to the extensive training and certification program each member undergoes. I think that's the emphasis unions should take to reverse the trends of the past 20 years. Provide it's members training and support so there is an economic benefit to using union labor. And brand it like a product. And of coarse follow through with more than just talk.

To: peter michaelson who wrote (8061)	2/22/1999 3:44:00 PM
From: Ron Bower	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Steven, Today, Unions represent the lowest percentage of the workforce in the last 50 years, yet the economy is showing the highest and most sustained growth in our history. Union dominated industries have not grown with the rest of the economy because unions have stifled innovation. (Use Great Britain as an example of unions almost destroying an economy.) I disagree that mandating higher wages for workers in the underdeveloped countries would increase consumer demand as the increased wages would be inflationary and counter productive. These countries must first develop a 'demand' for a larger workforce. Wages cannot rise when a company is paying 70 cents an hour to 2,000 employees and has 10,000 applicants for those few jobs because the average workers annual income is less than $500? As these companies succeed and grow, the demand for labor increases, businesses must increase worker benefits to hire and keep their labor = increased consumer demand. The emerging markets are feeding on the consumer demand of the US and Europe. Any country mandating increased wages will make it more difficult for their businesses to compete in these markets and with other countries unless the wage increase is coupled with a currency devaluation = negating the wage increases. (Mexico) IMO the problem in most all of the developing nations, particularly the communist countries, to be the lack of 'skilled' and 'trainable' labor. The successes of Japan and South Korea are a result of an emphasis on education. Ramsey made me realize the extent of this problem in China - three generations of 're-educating' intellectuals has resulted in virtually no one left to teach. While it may seem unjust that the 'elite' profit from low worker wages, the choice at this point is better jobs versus no jobs. These 'elite' are the better educated, better able to take advantage of the business opportunities, and willing to take risks. Just my opinion for what it's worth, Ron

To: peter michaelson who wrote (8061)	2/23/1999 9:53:00 AM
From: Worswick	Respond to of 9980

Hello Peter..... Ref. Wall St. Journal "....Figures released Monday on HSBC's nonperforming loans showed that while HSBC is faring slightly better than its peers, it hasn't entirely dodged the bad-loan bullets in Hong Kong. The company reported that as of Dec. 31 its nonperforming loans in Hong Kong reached 3.7% of its total loans in the city, up from 1.7% as of June 30. By comparison, Hong Kong's banks on average had nonperforming loans equal to 3.8% of their loan portfolios as of Sept. 30, according to the most recent figures from the Hong Kong government. The level of nonperforming loans at HSBC and other banks in Hong Kong is likely to jump, given the ailing economy. Mr. Lok said nonperforming loans usually peak six months or more after an economy hits bottom, as bankruptcies and corporate problems eventually come to light. Following Hong Kong's last economic slump in 1994 and early 1995, bad loans peaked in 1996 at 1.1% of total lending, according to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. This time around, many economists don't expect the economy to bottom out until the second half of this year, at the earliest. Sufficient China Provisions Another factor likely to increase HSBC's nonperforming loans is its exposure to China. The bank has been one of the biggest foreign lenders in China, and Mr. Lok doubts it can completely avoid the problems affecting other banks there. On Monday, HSBC said that its loans to China at Dec. 31 totaled US$2.15 billion but that sufficient provisions have been made for bad loans there. Mr. Lok expects that HSBC's nonperforming loans in Hong Kong will rise this year to 7% of its loans outstanding there, or the equivalent of about US$5.2 billion. He expects that HSBC's nonperforming loans in Asia outside Hong Kong will reach about 14%, or US$4.7 billion. Some other analysts are even more pessimistic. Andrew Brown of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell predicts that HSBC's nonperforming loans in Hong Kong in 1999 will reach 8% of its loans outstanding there, or about US$5.72 billion, while nonperforming loans in the rest of Asia will reach US$8.46 billion.