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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MythMan who wrote (20896)	2/22/1999 3:16:00 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86076

I'm not mad, just have a strong conviction unshaken by a rally brought on by a bunch of partying whippersnappers who are throwing their last bit of money onto the table, hoping to get lucky one more time ... I think the bottom is falling out of the PC biz. I know MB has been predicting it forever -- but there is going to be enough evidence shortly that at the very least there will be a massive rotation out of it -- I'm scratching my head trying to figure out how in the world the indices can stay up when this happens since a good part of the NDX are MSFT, INTC, DELL and some other companies related to these? That's my bear case and I think it starts within weeks (probably 2 - 3). If it doesn't happen until the summer I've made a gross error. You won't get me to admit it until the very day of expiry in April. I may lose some in March, but timing this thing is difficult. When you get 80 and 90 points swings in the NAZ are you not going to be prepared for it to swing up as well? I bought May 70's on DELL when it was 98 and 100. And those puts are worth just slightly more today. DELL may climb back to 90, but I believe that it will be well below 70 before May expiry. I bought MU puts twice in this run. Most of them when it was 80. That one may very well go back to 80 ... I knew that when I bought them. What do you want me to say? Make your own decision. If you think it is foolhardy to bet against this market -- don't do it. I'm not doing it because I enjoyed losing a couple of grand in IBM puts in January. I'm doing it because I really expect to win. <ng> I am long commodites for the same reason ...