Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (103840)	2/22/1999 3:45:00 PM
From: SecularBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

But, Michael, do we live in such a static world and market? LoD

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (103840)	2/22/1999 4:01:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Michael- Meredith said that he is expecting revenue growth in the mid-single digits...that is the same thing he said last year at the same time (and probably the year before)...he did not say that he expected unit growth in the mid-single digits... So, this is the same "seasonal" weakness that Dell has always dealt with..nothing new... Are you going to come back when IDC publishes their data in late April and admit to us how dumb you are to ignore seasonality when Dell shows a big jump in market share? (especially 1Q '99/4Q '98 vs. 4Q '98/3Q '98)..I'm pretty sure that you'll come back, but I doubt you will admit the obvious (that you are wrong about the lack of seasonality in the latest figures)....Not your style...you will pick on something else (new), and ignore the fallacy of some of your old arguments.. Another question: If Dell reports revenue growth in Q1 of 45% (y-o-y)...will you admit that the 38% was an anomoly (for the reason's MD spoke of in the CC)..and that mid-40's is a more reasonable target going forward for the next few quarters... Today's action sure seems awfully strong for a "technical bounce"...looks like some of your buddies are a little concerned here...better cover up..it could hurt a little here.... Finally, wouldn't you agree that ROI is just a little more important than book value? or cash dividends?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (103840)	2/22/1999 4:05:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Michael, I will try to explain this to you one last time. When you said My view is that Gabriel claims that 3q to 4q is seasonally weak, and he is right. But now Dell is claiming that 1Q and 2Q are seasonally weak. That statement is a total distortion of the information you have been repeatedly given. The inescapable conclusions are as follows: Dell's weakest quarters are and always have been Q1 and Q2. Its strongest quarters are, and have been Q3 and Q4 (those quarters are not weak as you claim). This is not a shift in position or analysis. The fact is that the industry as a whole is much more seasonal than Dell, which means that historically, companies like CPQ and GTW have much bigger Q4 sequential increases in sales than Dell, and during Dell's relatively weak Q1 where sales average only a 6.2% sequential increase over Q4, both GTW and CQP show sequential declines in sales. That does not mean that Dell's Q1 sales are seasonally strong, because if you annualize that figure you will see that the seasonally unadjusted number would give an annual sales growth of only 27.2%, or about half of what Dell's annual sales growth has been historically. By comparison, Dell's historic Q4 sequential sales growth (including this "poor" quarter) is 13.34%, or 65% annualized, which is higher than sales have increased annually over the last four years. CTC