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Strategies & Market Trends : LastShadow's Position Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Minos who wrote (8995)	2/22/1999 5:30:00 PM
From: LastShadow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 43080

I don't think it means a bottom, but the opposite. Three fund managers I talked with today all said today's action was teh result of three things: 1. The Monday following a double witching day is normally weird. 2. The light volume meant few sellers, and on an up day that generally means probably a second day of ups tomorrow. 3. With the bond rates as they are climbing and #2 above it implies a topping. Although all of that sounded reasonable since my cutoff numbers weren't met for reentry into the funds, none of which helped my head since I am am still in the ProFund Bear. With stronger volume or something major out of the G7 conference or steady gains in the primary market sectors (and not just restaurant, gaming and other miscellaneous sectors) I would have decided I should be bailing the Bear fund (admittedly a somewhat short and risky play) and going long. But a few traders (not on SI) I also talked to who I trust told me to stick with my analysis and trade my plan as long as it works. Which isn't to say they agreed with it, but they concurred they were not going long overnight on the light volume either, although 2/3rds expected an up morning tomorrow as well. So I guess this is a lengthy post that said nothing... lastshadow

To: Minos who wrote (8995)	2/22/1999 6:00:00 PM
From: Matthew L. Jones	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 43080

Interesting idea. I wonder if it would work with SPYders. It would be like trading a S&P 500 basket. Matt

To: Minos who wrote (8995)	2/22/1999 6:24:00 PM
From: AlienTech	Respond to of 43080

>>On another note, I am in the shadow camp and resisted going long today for the same two reasons -- light volume and lack of participation by MSFT. That probably means we've seen a bottom.<< Well we can either join the guru's and keep saying the market is the dumps and miss the easy points in XLNX or wait until everything runs back up to their old highs and buy it just to be safe. Now I am not going to go give myself a nice beatting for not buying XLNX after CNBC made such a big on it this morning! ARGH!!!!!! AFTER ALL THAT I DID NOT BUY ANY EBAY!!!!!!! ARGH!!!!!!!!!! I think I know what my problem is, I talk too much and forget what I talked about To: +shuo (23703 ) From: +AlienTech Sunday, Feb 21 1999 5:07PM ET Reply # of 23750 >>be careful with ebay which just appears to be one of the put plays by a newsletter i subscribed i still doubt we will see a rally to a new high soon currently i m long aol and short bcst here is the comment from them<< I have this problem, Every time I get personally involved in a stock I loose my objectivity completely. But if I dont have any money to loose or gain I can be very good at picking them, I was very bullish on EBAY before they went IPO, I was telling everyone to buy, The same with a few other stocks. At this point I think EBAy can easily exceed their old highs before making another bottom. But I think AMZN has more upside potential on a percentage basis. Internet stocks are overvalued on a tradational basis, But the people buying them are not traditional. The run in the internet sector has not really started and no matter what barns and nobles or wallmart does, They will not catch up to the leaders. For that you need to look at the history of the online business, AOL was a crummy joint 10 years ago, With prodigy and compuserve and delphi having the backing of the traditional companies with huge backing. But all the others are now no where to be seen and AOL is up on top. You really think that if traditional american companies had a clue they would actually let all these little piddly inty companies rise in the first place? Or that they will ever let the new generation gain control of running their own inty business's? And that will be why this run has barely started. I know how hard it is, 5 years ago I was trying to get backing to do some of these things. I even put what ever I had into getting into things but obviously a little piddly programmers cant even begin to make a dent in things without some one's deep pockets. So I lost, but guess what, These so called visionaries lost as well, they belive in the clost syndrome, our white picket fenced community, where it is safe and it is home. But to really understand things you need to go much farther back into ham radios and what a black box is and how it is used and why.