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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (37975)	2/22/1999 6:19:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Respond to of 95453

George-I suspect that we will NOT see a classic selling climax.We would only get that if OPEC cancelled the mtg or failed to agree. But I think the bottom of the decline will be in within 2 weeks and ahead of the OPEC mtg.. I need to see 5 waves down from Feb3 hi of 54.03. Today-or possibly tomorrow, we will likely have ended wave 3 of the sequence. So, a minor blip up Tues/Wed followed by another dip below today/tomorrow's print low would constitute 5 waves down and potentially the end....There is the possibility that the end of THIS 5 wave sequence will prove to be only the end of Wave 3 of a larger 5wave sequence which started from the early Jan peak, in which case we would need to do one more "4-5" to complete THAT larger wave.... Bottom line, I think the END of the Bear is within 2 weeks and that the OSX will bottom "anywhere between 40-45" . (It may even bottom ABOVE the late 98 low in the mid-45's as one of my counts has that as a scenario, instead of fresh new lows). My trading software is targeting 40-42.50 area. We could bottom slightly above that or even a smidgen below it. Any drop materially below 39.50 would mean the drop was accelerating and all bets would be off in that event (which i don't expect)