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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (3432)	2/22/1999 7:46:00 PM
From: Hank Stamper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Mr. J.W. Stiff wrote: "You hit the nail on the head here. If the executives at the large cap companies were on top of the cycle there would be far more insider buying at the bottom." I think this is quite significant. Especially since a lot of space is taken up in certain threads (e.g., AMAT, Blood.....Streets) by discussion of methods for determing when buy. In other words figures such as BtB or the number of fabs mothballed or the price of DRAM won't add up to a forumla for indicating the point of turn around. Therefore, a good strategy (the best?) is to buy the large caps in this sector when their prices have been beaten down and no one sees the horizon of recovery. Don't try to pick the very bottom and be prepared to wait more than the historical average for a recovery. I traded AMAT last spring and summer. In the fall I traded out again. I made some nice returns. I did not anticipate that the bottom had ended, at least as Mr. Market was concerned. I used the earnings well on other, long term picks. (One of which is a triple bagger since November.) But sadly, I've watched AMAT go way past the point at which I thought it would turn back. After all, I reasoned, there was still no recovery in equipment orders on the horizon. Ciao, David Todtman