Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Working All Day, But Trading Behind the Bosses Back Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: puborectalis who wrote (582)	2/22/1999 11:15:00 PM
From: Mark[ox5]	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 779

Grin.. just looking ahead The market usually works 6 months in advance... i.e. if the "feeling" is interest rates are to be hiked in fall, you will see the affect start to hit the market in spring sometime. If Y2K is really a big fear, you will see the "spook" beginning in summer. Also, summer is traditionally a weak time (quarter) for tech companies... especially international ones because of the 6 week vacations in Europe. So yes Im always worried ;) Actually this whole year sort of worries me...a lot of this market right now is pychology, not fundamentals. Even assuming growth rates of 40%+ the big companies like SUNW, CSCO, EMC still look "expensive", and internet stocks (which influence market psychology) are going to slow down simply because supply (3 new IPOs a week, plus lockups ending, plus additional share offerings) is eventually going to catch up to demand. There are only "so many dollars" out there in the hands of daytraders... On the flip side, inflation is benign... in fact INCREDIBLe considering the run we have had the past 3 or 4 years... commodity prices (raw goods) at lowest levels in 24 years.... foreign economies still week so Fed would be hard pressed to increase rates... Also, the continued avalanche of 401K money flowing into the market should help the market, especially the S&P500 (big caps)... but when does it become idiotic to still be paying a 30 PE for a company like Coke when its growth rate is now 12%? I dont know... maybe it can continue... On the other flip side grin the internet will contribute to keeping prices low...goods can be offered to anyone, anywhere... retailers are going to be hurt especially.... Biggest concern overall is earnings to me... with inflation low and profit margins squeezed because of international competition (i.e. Asian and Latin American companies dumping their goods here because their exchange rates have been so f***ed the past 2 years) AND the fact companies like ONSALE are selling things AT COST (wholesale) on the internet (or AMZN about 35% less then tradtional competitors), & my opinion is profit margins in many industries (consumer sort of industries) will fall... it won't affect the monopolies (or pseudo monopolies like MSFT) but everyone else yes. I can see Intel being the "next DELL"... who is going to pay $2800 for a Pentium 3 in the home market (corporate market is different story).. I mean HOW fast do you need the computer to go for internet access or working in Excel... so that along with AMD and others putting pricing pressure on them, takes out another of the "4 Horseman" There is something called limited rate of return, and for the home PC market I think we are near it. Besides video games, there is no need to get anything about a Pentium II for the average consumer ... at this point. Maybe broadband will change that, but that is still 2-3 years out before having good market penetration... with cable or xDSL modems.... These are all macroeconomic views :) But I think we cannot invest in a vacuum. Mindless musings, Mark