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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Madera International - Symbol WOOD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David T. Groves who wrote (1284)	2/22/1999 10:42:00 PM
From: David T. Groves	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1979

Of course I never went into the effect of interest on earnings that this company wood experience after it bought it's sawmills and plywood plant and millworks plant. I thought I'd leave that to someone else. but what the hey, I just realized that there is another 10 million in assets lurking on the horizon by studying the 10ksb (thanks Sequoia!). So let's mention that our consensus on the cost of these capital acquisitions was $10 million, leaving $50 million to draw interest and save finance costs on the lumber shipments. These in themselves could Impact earnings per share to the tune of $.03-.04. So their is my formula for earnings in the year 2000. Double the third quarter earnings times 6 for the increased production capability, plus .04 for the financial benefits. I know many of you say they should do better with interest, but again, I try to be conservative. And we will have at least $1.25 book value. If we have $.007 this quarter the math would be (2x.007)x6+.04= $.124 Put a 30PE on that and you get a share price of $2.56, which wood be 2x book value, nice and conservative, not even in line with this stocks growth potential!!!!!! $.008 this quarter = $2.92 $.009 = $3.28 $.01 = $3.63 at 3x book value $.011 = $3.99 $.012 = $4.35 $.013 = $4.71 $.014 = $5.06 AT 4X Book value Again, this is with 2x this quarter's earnings, which should be close to this years earnings, and the premise that once their 4 new plants get functioning, their output should be 6x what it is now. Not taking into consideration the web site, and saying that this stock should sell at a PE of 30 which is the average of it's group. Tack on $.04 for improved interest enviroment. Guesstimate? YES Accurate? PRObAbLY NOT Tear it apart and we all can get to a consensus that could be close!! Dave