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Gold/Mining/Energy : Silver prices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TD who wrote (1745)	2/22/1999 11:22:00 PM
From: baystock	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8010

Also from the same guy: Monday's COMEX gold estimated volume was a very light 13,000 lots. Total COMEX gold open interest on Friday surged 3,857 to 190,782 contracts, representing a strongly bullish scenario in which commercials are accumulating in spite of Friday's $2.10 rise in the gold price. Commercials generally buy only on dips, so when they buy on an up day this is especially noteworthy (and bullish). COMEX silver open interest dipped 370 to 98,157 lots as the speculative bubble begins slowly to be deflated. Given the outrageously lopsided (extraordinarily bearish) commitments for silver, on any selloff, thousands of speculator sell stops will be triggered, causing a sharp short-term collapse in the silver price. It's not "different this time." Recommendation: Buy silver puts, or as a superior hedging strategy, be a true contrarian by playing the gold/silver ratio to expand. COMEX gold warehouse stocks were unchanged at 819,457 ounces, while COMEX silver warehouse stocks surged 1,079,682 to 77,398,002 ounces, modestly above their lowest level since 1982.

To: TD who wrote (1745)	2/26/1999 7:58:00 PM
From: TD	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8010

Full story...Gettting tight? NY precious metals end mixed, silver higher NEW YORK, Feb 26 (Reuters) - New York precious metals ended mixed Friday, with silver storming back in the last hour of trading mostly on end-of-week book-squaring. But the market remains nervous, following the volatility earlier this month that sent prices to six month highs. Some traders have suggested that a a resurgence of tight COMEX spreads, stiff lease rates and other factors present a recipe for higher prices. COMEX May silver was $5.63 an ounce, up 6.5 cents from Thursday's trading, trading between $5.46 and $5.64 an ounce. March silver was $5.635 an ounce, up 8.6 cent. Spot silver was quoted at $5.63/66 an ounce compared with the London fix at $5.58 and Thursday's New York close at $5.57/60. One theory holds that the market should be nervous because of the unusually small number of delivery notices issued on the first notice day Friday. "Usually, you see a large number of notices issued on the first day and then they dwindle the rest of the month," explained Don Tierney, a trader with Pell Brothers. "That wasn't the case this time." Nearly 600 notices were issued Friday against a March open interest of 7,666 lots. "That's only about 8 percent of the March open interest. In past delivery periods, first notice day accounted for 40 to 50 percent of the notices issued," Tierney said. "What that could mean is that those that are short are either gambling that the spread is going to move back in their favor and they are waiting to roll their position, or they can't find material to make delivery. I think the market is very nervous." The low number of delivery notices didn't escape the notice of several traders. "I noticed it," said Carlos Perez-Santalla, a trader with Hudson River Futures. "But I don't think the March open interest is high enough to make a difference." COMEX stocks stood at 78,134,719 ounces at Friday's close, which accounts for 15,627 lots. Several traders estimated that even if a portion is held by banks as collateral for other investments, stocks are still plentiful enough to make delivery on the remaining open interest. "I think the surprise was the March open interest was as low as it was," another trader said. "Had open interest been higher, then the (low number of) notices issued would be more signiificant. But I think most short positions have done their rolling. And the few who didn't got squeezed today when the spread moved against them." The COMEX March-May spread flipped to a 0.5 cent backwardation from a 2.5-cent contango Thursday." "I do believe the market is tight and that people should be nervous," Hudson's Perez-Santalla said. "The spreads and the lease rates should be making people concerned." One-month lease rates burgeoned back out to 7-10 percent from 5-9 percent Thursday. In the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's biweekly commitment of traders report issued Friday, the net long speculative position shrank by 3,290 lots to 64,761 lots. COMEX April gold ended at $288.30 an ounce, down 90 cents, trading between $286.50 and $289.10 an ounce. Spot bullion was quoted at $286.60/7.00 compared with the late London fix at $287.05, and Thursday's New York close at $287.50/8.00 an ounce. COMEX April platinum ended at $381.70 an ounce, up $1.30, while March palladium ended at $350.60 an ounce, down $5.40. ((Derek J. Caney, New York Commodity Desk, 212-859-1646, derek.caney@reuters.com))