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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Machaon who wrote (28372)	2/23/1999 1:15:00 PM
From: Cheryl Galt	Respond to of 32384

>> The way I figure ...we need one more movement down, with significant volume kicking in at the low, before we turn back up. << Good chance that move-down opportunity is coming in about a week. It's not polite to talk about it, but my sense is that the Market sees the coming annual report hanging like a cloud over the stock. It's possible that the low-revenue financial news is totally built into the current price. But I (for one) doubt it. I think the total revenues in the 4Q and annual report (especially the breakdown of revenues from each partner) plus the growing number of total outstanding shares will shock some investors who haven't been paying attention. Might even shock some investors who have been paying attention! Oouch!! Dilution hurts! <g> If I get a bargain then, I'll take it. If not, I'll surmise that the two new approvals have given the stock some price stability. -------------------- BUT, we NEED to see Ligand announce an NDA FILING for Targretin for CTCL. It's approval (and Targretin revenue) can't happen in 1999 unless that filing happens soon. That filing is the current key item on the "critical path." Perhaps the absence of this filing is the reason for the Market's nervousness with Ligand, and its skepticism about profitability in 1999 -- and therefore is part of the reason for the current low price. That's my guess, by the way. ------------ I expect that NDA filing to raise the price. NEXT price raiser: I'll hope for good news about the Phase II trial to be released at ASCO in May -- which IMO would be a much more prestigious and effective way to release good news than in a random press release. Cheryl

To: Machaon who wrote (28372)	2/23/1999 1:49:00 PM
From: Cheryl Galt	Respond to of 32384

Re: CTSL-- Good article except for: "Ligand can still be profitable this year, depending on the new deals they sign .... " ---------------------------------- What POINT this continuing emphasis on profitability in 1999? Why invest SO MUCH in this artificial milestone? that is SO unlikely to be met?? Why raise unlikely expectations? Why set Ligand up for the appearance of failure, and tension and price loss as we get into 4th quarter? With so many warrants taken off the table at year end, I'd hate to be holding them in December if this phony emphasis on "profitabliity in 99" causes the company to "disappoint." Who CARES if Targretin revenue starts coming in December? or the following February? At this date, I think it's highly unlikely that everything will come together in 1999. Murphy's analysts need to do a GANNT Chart (groan). IMO, sloppy optimism about no-value goals hurts this stock and the company's credibility. (It likely even contributes to short-term volatility and groundless discontent with the company.) Just my opinion. I'm aware it's a minority opinion. So be it ... ------------------------------------- "Ligand can still be profitable this year, depending on the new deals they sign .... " Thinking out loud: a) Does Murphy have insider information? (I doubt it) b) Is he trying to start a new rumor? (who knows ....) c) Is he referring to great distribution agreements? Maybe. d) Is he just filling in his time slot with sloppy small-talk copy? ---------------- I want to see solid evidence of profitability coming within the next 18 months, so we can avoid going to the dilution well, avoid giving away any more cancer molecules. There are lots of important factors that impact that -- that would make for good, interesting discussion -- but (IMO) "December 31st," short-term stock prices, and phantom deals are irrelevant. Cheers for the real goals! Cheryl