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Politics : Bill Clinton Scandal - SANITY CHECK -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Neocon who wrote (35175)	2/23/1999 9:28:00 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 67261

WHAT THE SCANDAL COST CLINTON By DICK MORRIS THE conventional wisdom holds that President Clinton's poll ratings have remained sky high and that he has floated above the wreckage of the Lewinsky scandal without effect. While it is true that the president's job-approval ratings have remained stratospheric, his personal favorability has dropped to dramatic new lows as a result of the Lewinsky scandal. The Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll of Feb. 14 demonstrates this increasing divergence between the president's job performance and his personal popularity. While Clinton's job approval stays high - 66 percent approve, 29 percent disapprove - his personal favorability has fallen to a new low of 41 percent favorable, 52 percent unfavorable. Before the Lewinsky scandal broke, Clinton's favorability was 59-35. The president's personal image has suffered enormously in the scandal. America thinks Clinton is a bad man doing a good job. The rest of the Fox polling data shows how deep the damage to Clinton's image actually runs. By 73 percent to 18 percent, voters believe that Clinton ''perjured himself before the Grand Jury''; by 53 to 35, they think that he ''obstructed justice by trying to influence what Monica Lewinsky and his secretary Betty Currie would say in their testimony.'' Nor does the Senate acquittal of the president impress voters. By 73 percent to 15 percent, they believe that ''the Democratic Senators who voted to acquit president Clinton did so because they support their party'' not that they believed Clinton was innocent. While voters do not believe Clinton should have been removed from office, they approve of the Senate's vote to acquit by only 49 to 45. ''Acquit'' is, for half the voters, a word that goes too far. The conventional wisdom is also flawed in maintaining that the aggressive pursuit of Bill Clinton will cost House Republicans their majority in the 2000 elections. They may yet lose control now that their majority in the House of Representatives has been whittled down to five seats, but the impeachment of Clinton is not likely to be the key factor. The Fox poll asked voters if they would ''prefer the Republicans keep control of the House after the next election or that the Democrats gain control?'' The result was an even break, with 44 percent backing continued GOP control and 41 percent wanting the Democrats to take over. Even when the question was pointedly aimed at impeachment, it made no big difference. When asked, ''In view of how the House of Representatives handled the impeachment matter, would you prefer the Republicans keep control of the House after the next election or that the Democrats gain control of the House?'' 44 percent wanted a Democratic takeover and 42 percent favored GOP control. If a direct reminder of the impeachment proceedings triggers only a two-point GOP drop and a three-point Democratic gain two years before the actual election, impeachment will be a non-factor in the 2000 elections. That is not to say that the Republicans did not sustain damage in the impeachment process. In the same Fox poll, the approval rating for the job Congress is doing dropped to a new low of 39 percent approval and 50 percent disapproval. Congress had better get busy with legislation aimed at saving Social Security and Medicare and create a record of progress on which to run. At the same time that Clinton's favorability ratings and those of the GOP-dominated Congress have dropped down the well, Vice President Al Gore's numbers have also suffered. Before impeachment, he was tied with his most likely rival, Texas Gov. George W. Bush, in trial heats. Now he regularly loses by 10 to 15 points. In fact, with Clinton, Gore and the Republican Congress suffering declining numbers, what the polling shows plainly is that everybody is in trouble. That's good news for America. When all incumbents need to get well, they usually get together and pass a lot of good legislation. The situation in Washington most resembles that after the government shutdown of 1995 when Congress and Clinton both needed to pass a bunch of laws to look good. The result was the passage of welfare reform, the Kennedy-Kassenbaum health-insurance reform, the Clean Drinking Water Act, and an increase in the minimum wage. The fruits of this year's negative ratings for the incumbents are likely to be protection of Social Security, reform of Medicare, the passage of education reforms, a cut in the national debt, and reduction of taxes. Not a bad haul for the country. The Fox News poll also offers some latent good news for Kenneth Starr, the special prosecutor. While his popularity remains at rock bottom, Americans do not want him to be fired. When asked whether ''President Clinton should instruct Attorney General Janet Reno to fire Kenneth Starr?'' Voters answered an emphatic ''no'' by 23-67. In this space, I have speculated that Clinton might have such plans up his sleeve. The recent investigation of Starr by the Justice Department and the speculation that Reno might name a special prosecutor to prosecute the special prosecutor all smacks of a set-up to intimidate or remove Clinton's least favorite human from office. But the Fox poll shows that he would pay a prohibitive price should he move to ax Starr. Once again, America seems to have gotten it about right. They don't want Clinton removed. They dislike him more and more as a man. They don't think Congress is doing much, but they don't think the Democrats would do any better. Me too.