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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Platter who wrote (38018)	2/23/1999 11:00:00 AM
From: S. M. SAIFEE	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Could you please let us know what was greenspan's remark? Thanks

To: Platter who wrote (38018)	2/23/1999 11:27:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95453

Of course Oil is up on Greenspans comments - he called a bottom ! Did he not say - '' that Energy prices would not continue lower, and that one could not expect these price levels to continue'' ? He did send a clear message imho: Corporate America - factor rising Energy prices into business/earnings models, keep a tight rein on Wages and ''I'' (AG) will 'ala the prior soft ''landing'' - will again manage a soft ''takeoff'' ... He painted a picture of inevitable pressure from energy, but said '' that compared to prior early stage cycles; inflationary pressure here could be less than prior cycles.'' That being - Energy would be a inflationary driver, but that the loss of pricing power and wage pressure would lessen its effect. While this isn't going to obviously send Crude prices running to $18; it is as good a ''policy'' call and interpretation of what to expect inflationwise and Energy pricewise as any comments of late... Bottomline: It's the ''TREND" stupid ... The ''Trend'' in supply and demand is NOW more important than actual prices ... OPEC has cut 30 Million boe in supply; the Global powers have injected historic amounts of capital/liquidity into the Global system, Demand on a Global basis ''is'' still rising - NOT declining; and ''ANY'' slight increase/upside surprise in Asian/Japanese demand will be magnified dramatically because it has been virtually totally discounted. Many recent reports have stated that this falls cutback in Rig utilization and the Major Oil's Cap Ex reductions would not be seen in the supply #'s for months to come. Everyone seems to forget that all the API/EIA #'s we see are greatly lagging... AG just added additional comments on questions after his speech: said - '' it is hard to imagine the sharp decline in Oil to continue'' - called it a ''one time'' event and said it was a ''phenomenon'' and was the reason of his rising concern of Inflation'' ... commented on productivity enhancements/de-regulation etc. as being anti- inflatinary'' - but he CLEARLY spoke more to OIL PRICES today than he has of late .... the message was LOUD & CLEAR imho.... - BEAT THE CROWD TO THE PARTY - the man who sets the time, date & rules for the party has just spoken ! PS - to all those who are blowing in the wind once again; keep those fingers warm; don't bother sticking them into the wind; ie: when haven't we sold off - been shorted into the release of API/EIA numbers of late ??? hello - been a simplistic trading play of late actually ... anyone play the PDE stop loss take out today - fell off a cliff then suddenly reversed...surprise, surprise - right at the ''margin'' cutoff price - FLC will offer a similar play it it is driven to $5. Back to Club Fed... Ciao