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Strategies & Market Trends : Graham and Doddsville -- Value Investing In The New Era -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Freedom Fighter who wrote (1336)2/23/1999 11:23:00 PM
From: Mike M2  Respond to of 1722
 
Wayne, when credit is created outside the banking system with asset -backed securities or by nonbank financial institutions it does not increase the money supply as bank lending does it increases money velocity. The primary source of funds are highly leveraged money market funds. As I understand it since this credit is created outside the banking system it is not under the control of bank regulators or the Fed - so I assume this is why they are so highly leveraged. In October bank credit expanded at a 22% annual rate- almost half of this growth was in security purchases according to the Richebacher Letter. Mike



To: Freedom Fighter who wrote (1336)2/24/1999 11:31:00 AM
From: Knighty Tin  Respond to of 1722
 
Wayne, I don't know if I'll be any help here, but I'll jump in on some of this. Fannie and Freddie borrow short to lend long, a time honored way of kissing your assets goodbye. <g> One reason they do so is so banks can invest deposits in their short term paper and can lend on their long term collateral. But that is a small part of the credit creation. The story starts with somebody who sells a house or building or whatever and makes a deposit at a bank, the bank multiplies that through loans in the normal manner, some of this loan money finds its way into the mortgage market and the agency paper, long and short term, new mortgages are created with the seller making a new deposit in a bank, multiplying again. Etc. So, though Fannie and Freddie paper is indeed non-bank credit, when they create mortgages, they encourage property turnover which increases deposits which are multiplied through the credit system.

I hope that makes some sense. Effectively, a home with 15 years left of a 30 year mortgage and a ton of equity is not currently creating any new credit, outside of the multiplier on the monthly payment. When that house turns over for a price that is higher than the original price and the mortgage, the bank at least gets the mortgage paid off to create a multiplier effect with those deposits, and probably gets most of the mortgage deposited at least temporarily. So, Freddie and Fannie out there issuing debt and taking on new mortgage assets at a quick pace increases credit flows in the entire system. Of course, the real estate market being in a manic bubble helps things along. <g> But lower rates and readily available credit for folks you and I would never lend to, such as you and I <vbg>, certainly helps the bubble inflate.

If this is totally bogus reasoning, then somebody else wrote it. <g>

MB