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Gold/Mining/Energy : JDS Fitel -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chris Stovin who wrote (755)	2/24/1999 1:45:00 AM
From: pat mudge	Respond to of 815

Oh well, they wanted to get into fiber optics.... :.) A classic case of being hung on your own petard. :) Pat

To: Chris Stovin who wrote (755)	2/24/1999 12:05:00 PM
From: pat mudge	Respond to of 815

From Fiber Optics Online: >>> -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NEWS AND ANALYSIS 02/24/1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corning Lays Out Annual Market Analysis with Bullish Forecast at OFC '99 By: Erik Kreifeldt SAN DIEGO, CA—"We are feeling very, very bullish about the future," says Gerald Fine, VP and general manager of Corning Inc.'s Photonic Technologies Division, assessing the optical fiber component and module industry at Corning's annual briefing held here at OFC '99. Corning calculates growth exceeding 60% in this market in 1998 compared with 1997, and expects to see 30% compound annual growth rate for undersea applications, more than 30% for the long haul market, and 150% in the metro space between 1998 and 1999. Component market sectors "Despite advances in long haul capacity, we do not believe network capacity will catch up with demand in the foreseeable future," says Fine of the undersea sector. Behind the growth in the terrestrial long haul space will be new network deployments in new places (outside of North America, particularly in Europe), he surmises, in addition to carriers continuing to add capacity earlier than planned as they deal with wildly unpredictable bandwidth demand. While the metro market promises to be the most interesting, Fine admits that it is the most difficult to forecast. Corning expects to realize demand for wavelength add/drop modules and components for optical cross connects in 1999. "We at Corning believe that 1999 will be the year of the add/drop module," Fine concludes. To start things off, Corning is introducing its first wavelength add/drop modules at OFC—a 4-wavelength add module and a 4-wavelength drop module that support 50 GHz channel spacing. It's also showing a prototype reconfigurable add/drop module in its OFC booth. Three new amplifier gain blocks round out Corning's new module offerings—including what it deems the first commercially available L-band module. Optical fiber On the fiber side, Corning is making available two new multimode fibers—a ruggedized singlemode fiber, and the undersea version of LEAF. The submarine LEAF is being tested for 32 channels of 10 Gbps transmission, and Corning has signed a multiyear contract with Alcatel Submarine Networks to supply the product. New product launches will continue for Corning. "Cycle time reduction will be the key to product development for Corning in the future," says Dale Niebur, product line operations manager for Corning's Telecommunications Products Division. He also reports that in the 12 months since Corning introduced the original version of LEAF, it has sold more than 1 million kilometers of the stuff. Altogether, worldwide demand consumed more than 50 million km of fiber in 1998, compared with 100 km in 1982, reports Alan Eusden, vice president and general manager of Corning's Telecommunications Products Division. The 1998 figure represents a 10% year-over-year growth rate, and Corning expects the rate will increase for 1999, he says. Gainers and losers Corning's 1998 figures include a few surprises. "South Africa was the most welcome and unexpected surprise of 1998," Eusden reports. The country logged in 200% growth in fiber demand in 1998 compared with 1997. "The big upset from our perspective was the lack of growth in Asian areas," Eusden says, citing a 25% decline in demand from Japan. Imploding economies also caused a 40% demand decline in Latin America. Western Europe was also a mild disappointment, logging in a 5% growth rate that is low for an otherwise strong economic region. He attributes the soft demand to delays in deregulation, particularly cross-border interconnection fees. But Corning expects the disappointing Asian performance to rebound with a vengeance in 1999, accompanied by significant ramp-ups in Brazil and Mexico in the otherwise flat Latin American fiber market. In Europe, Corning is banking on carriers to thrive as deregulation finally sets in (leading this drive for Corning is a LEAF contract with European wholesaler Carrier Holdings Ltd., which will get the fiber installed in Germany as part of a pan-European build). North American demand is expected to continue growing at its robust pace. Supply and demand Addressing Corning's market woes in late 1997 and early 1999, when the company endured price erosion as a result of fiber supply that exceeded demand by 25%, Eusden says the balance is a little closer today. "We've seen pretty significant demand in the last 18 months," he observes. "We don't see [fiber supply and demand] getting out of balance in the near term," Eusden says. "We're seeing less of a decline in fiber prices." He acknowledges, however, that the average fiber price is bolstered by premiums paid for the new fiber that Corning has been producing prolifically. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- >>>