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To: Steve Robinett who wrote (5681)	2/24/1999 12:17:00 PM
From: RocketMan	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 41369

"It's different this time," has historically been the kiss of death for markets. Steve, I can't argue with what you are saying, since the p/e's are very high, there is downside risk with interest rates, etc. However, to invest in the stock market is to accept somewhat contradictory positions. On the one hand, one looks at history and says that these p/e's can not be sustained (speaking of the market in general). On the other hand, the market is a random walk and the past is not to be taken as a prediction of the future. So where are we? I don't know, but I am reminded of the real estate boom in the 80's (or was it the 70's) when everyone was saying that a median home price in the 100k's, or 200-300k's, depending on what part of the country one lived in, could not be sustained. How could homes worth 30,000 ten years ago now be worth 200,000? I am not saying the stock market is analogous, clearly supply and demand and price inelasticity are differences. But one lesson that applies is that when large sums of money inflow into any sector, that sector can behave a lot different than it did in the past, and that can last for a very long time. According to Dent's analysis of the demographics in the Roaring 2000's, the baby boom cash inflow will continue through 2008 or so, and he does not look for a crash until then. Will he be right? Who knows, but he does make a very good case for it. In the meantime, I think we have to remain very careful, but we can not afford to be out of this market or it will run away from us. But the volatility and corrections may drive us crazy :-)