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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lucretius who wrote (104540)	2/24/1999 2:51:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Problems with the doomsday scenario... Lucretius...you guys had your day-in-the-sun last week....Dell has bounced off 80 big time....The 80-110 move was a parabolic blow-off..but your (and your buddies) mistake is in seeing the move from 110-80 as anymore than correcting that excess... You've got one more week before the announcement of the new web site (March 3).......Dell will probably be weak during the next 5 trading days......and then it is going to be extremely tough sledding to get this stock below 80 before next earnings... The action before, during, after this last earnings was similiar in many respects to the last many quarters...Even the momo money is going to come back to Dell come 2nd half of this quarter....Wall Street has not doomed this stock, and does not agree with your vision, that is clear........apparently, now the bar has been lowered for Dell to meet/beat expectation in Q1........that is good long-term (for longs)... Also, bears have operated under the assumption that Dell will now grow revenues at >38% going forward...leading to a steady decline in the stock's price...If Dell comes out, and grows revenue at 45%+ next quarter..what is that going to do to the stock? It certainly won't hurt.. Also, the seasonal effect, which hurt Dell this past quarter...will kick in (positively) in Q1......Dell is going to gain big marketshare in Q1.......You can kiss those articles about Dell losing marketshare goodbye for this quarter, Luc... The next week will be your best opportunity in a long time to unwind your put leaps...even a possible Y2K/October/Fed hike swoon this summer/October........will not ,in all probability, bring us back to the levels of this next week.. No inflation/No rate hike/Lots of sideline money/Strong consumer confidence, spending (tax refund season)/European markets rallying/Transport moving up/Dow, S&P nearing highs again....this is not the scenario for a meltdown.....The only thing you got going for you is the 30-year sitting on the higher end of the band (a concern, I admit)....but, you gonna need more than that........If its gonna happen (meltdown), you need some major downside action in the markets next week.... Finally, it's a good thing you have a long-term perspective concerning going long Japan...you are gonna need it....PC sales in Japan are one of the few healthy-looking areas going forward... So, one question: If Dell grows revenues at 45%, earnings at 50%, and EPS at 55% in Q1 '99...where do think the stock will be trading the 3rd week in May (after earnings announcement)?