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Strategies & Market Trends : HONG KONG -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom who wrote (2700)	2/25/1999 4:03:00 PM
From: Tom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2951

Hong Kong Market Watch The sharp dive in US market last time triggers more fear to the market. Firstly the yield on the long bond goes above the 5.50% barrier since last August. Secondly on a technical point of view, DJI fell sharply last night upon hitting the intraday high of 9,600.13, and the movement suggests a double-top formation. Nevertheless, as the Feb. futures have to be settled today, the strong players' hard support on the market well maintains the market index. At the moment, it will be fairly difficult to predict the short term HK market growth, as the market was solely supported by HSBC. If it can rise for $15 within 3 days, it can equally fall back $15 on the coming 3 days. Heavy turnover several days in a row now for Sichuan Expressway and Jaingsu Expressway. (1) Vitasoy (345) - Double turnover with all sellers cleared after market closed. (2) Yesterday we have already spotted some rebound in the H shares. Sichuan Express (107) - 5-day increase in turnover. Jiangsu Express (177) - 4-day increase in turnover. Apparently this may not be a coincidence. ----- If real rates are headed-up in earnest here in the U.S., JF may be off by quite a bit in overweighting HK. Interest rates, and room in HK for easing, was their rationale. Report earlier this week in SingBT which recorded syndicated-columnist William Saffire's interview w/ Singapore's SM Lee at the recent Dravos conference. Mr. Saffire has been a long-time and very outspoken critic of SM Lee. The article may still be in the BT archives. It's worth a read, if only to see Saffire calling Lee a "dictator" (as he has done more than once in his column), and how Mr. Lee handles it. Will be interesting, now that HSBC has made the Korean purchase, how Singapore's DBS will counter the move. Both are in expansion mode. Any interested investor in East Asia should read the IHT piece from about a week ago. It's the most recent roundtable discussion in their Money Report section. I agree w/ whomever of the participants indicated fears of a yuan devaluation are now overblown. Match the IHT article w/ the FEER's last Where To Put Your Money (also on-line). -----