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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Carpenter who wrote (38213)	2/24/1999 5:26:00 PM
From: VLAD	Respond to of 95453

HAHAHAHAHA!!!! TOOOOOO FUNNY!!! HARDYHARHAR!!

To: John Carpenter who wrote (38213)	2/25/1999 9:12:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95453

Well let's see if we can catch some FLC @ $5 today - ... maybe 60% of remaining FLC $'s in on a limit buy order @ $5; with a trailing buy set at $4 9/16ths for 30% and save the other 30% for armageddeon, or to add on the way up - youknow when the naybobs jump on ... Most importantly let's see where we end up returnwise by year end..in FLC. Now I know - ''year end'' is a virtual-world lifetime for our attention-span deficit crowd who don't look out past the end of their noses; but - let's see if #1 FLC gets there ($5); and most importantly where it finds itself around Christmas... ****************************************************************************** Gee - per CNBC, did someone just raise their FY 2000 Nat Gas forecast to $2.75 ? Now what would $2.75 do to EVER's eps hmmmm ? - looks like at least someone was looking far forward... Did S Korea's growth forecast change in just 55 short days from this past December of a minus -1% growth rate - to a now plus + 2% growth rate ? - a not so insignificant reversal in yet another Asian demand card.... yes; I know it's ohhh so hard for the attention-span deficit Bear crowd to look forward past the end of their noses... and I surely don't expect them to have enough sophistication to really ''hear'' what Greenspan warned about Oil prices, nor to see these catalytic drivers of future Oil prices - as their view of ''Its the Price of Oil - Stupid'' ends about 3mm past the end of their noses... ! Gee; now what happens if JAPAN - would surprise !? Is the risk/reward ratio more in favor of Japan's growth/demand falling farther ; or rising and increasing demand ? ****************************************************************************** And once again; It's the forward looking expectations of the price of Oil and Natural Gas that ''REALLY" determines the direction and prices here... My main point is given the indisputable 3 run ups of late in the Oilpatch - ( which by the way; was into the face of terrible fundamentals - much worse than today, with many, many more unanswered questions at that time); showed that one can miss 30-40-50% runs in days - if one chooses to wait for ''the price of Oil-Stupid'' fundamentals to appear ! Yes; sometimes the platitude of ''It's the Price of Oil-Stupid'' makes us feel warm & fuzzy, it sure makes a great & catchy tag line; but unfortunately in the real world - it just happens to be a little more complex and forward looking than that... The choice is simplistic; look far forward to the key indicators that determine Oil Price ''Expectations'' and accept some risk - weighing the risk vs. reward scenario; and buy cheap - or wait untill the entire world (even John Carpenter <VBG>) recognizes that Oil fundamentals have fully recovered and re-buy at price levels that I will be able to profitably sell to you at , or else where you get to get whipsawed by the profit taking, head faking and Mo-Mo train jumping...! Low stockprices and positive fundamentals DO NOT and CAN NOT exist simultaneously in the Oilpatch ! Two basic question arise; do I want to buy cheap in a negative sentiment/fundamental enviroment; or do I want to buy high in a positive sentiment/fundamental enviroment ? Obviously - the 2nd question is at what point does the risk vs. reward/return ratio turn in my favor and what is my ''gutcheck-pain threshold'' - nothing more simplistic than that... Are you a ''value'' investor, or a ''momenteum'' investor and how has history rewarded each type of investor in the Oilpatch's past downturns...? I think history has shown us where the ''Buffetesque'' returns are found... and it ''aint'' when everyone recognizes a positive fundamental enviroment - it ''aint'' where everyone was yelling buy ! - and it ''WAS" where the Nattering Naybobs of Negativity were at their Zenith and the pain thereshold was high. I don't think 'ole Warren bought Silver when everyone was bullish ; think Buffet was swayed by the Nattering Naybobs of Negativity who kept yelling - IT's THE PRICE OF SILVER -STUPID ! .... !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! and yes; even Warren had to in essence - ''call a bottom'' when he decided to buy into a downturn... once again; I would be worried here only if - it appeared the masses ''got it'' . PS - when do I plan on selling ? Target Prices ? - well obviously; when John Carpenter & Happle <VBG> start buying !!!!!!!!!!!! .