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To: Ian@SI who wrote (2002)2/24/1999 5:42:00 PM
From: Mark Adams  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2946
 
I sold SVGI when I thought the sector had gotten ahead of itself. I could buy back in now, and cover my trading costs. What I see now is more encouraging than I expected, from a Semi sector perspective.

Now, during the LTCM period, I managed to buy CYMI and PLAB for prices I could not believe. Too chicken at that time to add SVGI then, which was also very well priced. No bids then, could have just about my pick of quality stocks. Nirvana you say?

I don't expect that, though I hope to take advantage if it occurs. As it stands, the cold chills following that caused me to close out my positions in CYMI and PLAB too early, taking profits subsequently matched by those left on the table. SVGI remained a core holding till it broke 15, and the market looked manic.

As it stands, I'm tempted to take an initial position here, again. But I keep thinking that after a 2100 point runnup on the DOW, a 1000 point drop isn't out of the question. So I listen, and wait



To: Ian@SI who wrote (2002)3/3/1999 12:23:00 PM
From: David Aegis  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2946
 
Ian--Re: SVG's Wall Street Forum presentation in early February...

I finally got the Wall Street Forum site to work. Here is a summary of my notes. The speaker was Russ Weinstock, CFO. This year's presentation was more upbeat than last year's. But this presentation was before ASML made its announcements regarding Samsung and Hyundai...

My notes:

OPENING COMMENTS--SVGI is a great story. There is real value in SVG today, and more so in the future. There have been big changes in the industry outlook over the past six months. Shrinks have won out over 300mm, at least for the next few years. The front end equipment cycle is ready to take off again according to estimates by both VLSI and Dataquest. Both see the cycle being strong through '01. VLSI sees a strong '02, while Dataquest sees a tapering off in '02.

Market size across all three divisions is projected to double from $4 billion in '98 to $8 billion in '02.

SVG views the lithography division as its "home run ball."

Industry-wide, DUV represents 60% of all litho toolsets being purchased today. DUV is no longer a question. The question now is what the ratio of DUV toolsets will be scanners versus steppers.

SVG sees critical layer processing gravitating from .18u in '98-99 to on 248 nm wavelength machines to .15 and .13u in '00-'02 on 193 nm machines and .10 to .07u in '03-'04 on 157 nm and EUV machines.

The MIII is capable of .25-.14u, while the upcoming 193 nm machine (MIV?) will be capable of .18-.11u.

What differentiates SVG? 1) Technology leadership in critical layers--CD control, overlay. 2) Over 150 units in production worldwide. 3) Optical design advantages.

SVGL has 85% share of critical layer lithography for logic chips.

Photoresist processing (Track): In a transition period. Made a mistake with the APS 200 product line. Working on a 9000 series. Expect an announcement in the next few months. It will be a 200/300mm scalable platform, extendable to .13u. Trying to learn from the lessons of the 200 APS failure...

Thermal Processing: This division greatly expanded its customer base over the past year. The division has a fast ramp furnace scalable to .15u. Products have ownership advantages such as throughput and efficient use of consumables. Expect some new product announcements in the next few months.

Financials: The fiscal second quarter will be tough, as previously disclosed, but Russ is starting to feel much more comfortable about the second half with the bookings that have been coming in.

Objectives: 1) Maintain technology leadership. 2) Improve time to market. 3) Expand the global customer base. 4) Enhance operational efficiency. 5) Use cash wisely.

More thoughts: 1) The environment is improving. 2) Technology cycles are moving quicker and quicker. 3) Track and Thermal divisions offer synergies. SVG is not about to abandon them. The litho business is ready to "catch the wave" with the recent expansion of test bays. 4) SVG realizes that it must execute its strategies in the upcoming cycle.

Q&A Session:

Q: Are new tool sets needed to achieve line shrinks? A: Yes. Machines require different optical packages and stages. They also offer customers a lower cost of ownership.

Q: What differentiates SVGL? A: A proven installed base of production-worthy machines. 70% market share of scanners. Competition is coming, but not proven in production. SVGL has a goal to maintain 30-40% of the worldwide scanner market once competition ramps.

Scanning is not yet mainstream. It is used for 80-90% of the critical layers of logic chip manufacturing. DRAM does not yet need the technical advantages offered by scanners. This is changing. SVGL has about half a dozen evaluation machines placed with Korean and Taiwanese DRAM manufacturers.

SVGL expects 1999 to be the year when scanning gains greater acceptance for DUV applications. One large customer recently inquired about SVGL's ability to do turns orders. Lead times in Track and Furnace are 4-5 months, but lead times in Lithography remain in the 9-12 month range. Some optics components are being built to address a current bottleneck, which will allow for some quicker turns. Individual customers, however, typically require customized tools.

End of notes.

--David