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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (16879)	2/25/1999 12:20:00 AM
From: ed	Respond to of 74651

T2k, What do you expect GA to say in public ? " We are going to cut the rate , no matter how the economy is performing " or " We will hike the rate no matter how the economy is performing " or " we are to cut or hike the rate according to the economy , whenever we see an unbalance , either up or down " . I think AG is pretty neutral, and the statement is pretty appropriate. If you look at the big picture, the following factors are very good for the stock market 1) The economy is growning at an annual rate of 2.8% , much higher than the prediction of economists , i.e 2%. 2) Consumers confidence is increasing 3) More and more money from 401K, IRA, overseas keep pumped into the US stock market 4) An election year in 2000 5) Inflation is low and on track. 6) Imports are still cheap due to the cheap labors of overseas, and the currency. 7) Asia economy is now under an recovery mode, and will continue to be better. As a result more opportunity for the US companies. 8) The high tech products are for the increase of productivity, no matter what happens , companies overseas will always need to improve their productivities. So, the US HI Tech companies had an monopoly in the market of Hi Tech products. The small environment of Microsoft: 1) I do not think the government wants to destroy Microsoft completely, even Microsoft lost, the penality will be very limited. 2) If Microsoft lost in the first round , it will continue appeal , over and over again. If will take years to reach the final conclusion, maybe over 10 years. Just look at the case of IBM, AT&T. 3) Starting from this year, Microsoft will release several most important products, which are revenue generating machines. We already see signs of high growth in the previous earning report. Once these new products released, we will see both revenues and profit accelerate. 4) The Year2K fear will push current users of Window rev 3.0 to upgrade. 5) Microsoft is starting to diversify , couple years from now , you will see the OS business will be just a very small portion of Microsoft's total business. Will Microsoft drop tomorrow ? Maybe, because the whole market is droping. Will Microsoft shoot up ? Well, based on the big picture, and the small environment of Microsoft , I will see it shoot up big . I am now changing my Bet, i.e Microsoft hit $200 by end of March, 1999.