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Gold/Mining/Energy : WillP Speaks on Winspear -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: whiskeyjack who wrote (79)	2/25/1999 5:33:00 PM
From: wayne cath	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 177

TopReply Author: WillP -- Date:1999-02-25 09:57:11 Subject: Spence... Yes...I agree with your assessment about takeovers of Winspear. In any case, there is a pretty fair 'poison pill' in place that makes hostile takeovers unattractive. Accordingly, any mergers, addition of JV partners...whatever would be of a friendly nature, and would certainly hinge on the bulk sample results. Of course...that's just my opinion. I take it that you more or less share that view? So you're a grizzly veteran of 4 spring campaigns, eh? That's a long time in this business. I hear ya. This will be my eighth or ninth with Aber...and I guess number five or six with the 'Spear. Each year brings one closer to 'reality'. Here's hoping that reality is a great one. :-) Regards, WillP ------------------------------------------------------------------------ TopReply Author: WillP -- Date:1999-02-25 11:17:38 Subject: jspec: Ships and Maidens Yes...the Snap Lake flotilla is rather dated. I should, of course remind you that it is Winspear's navy, not solely mine. I trust on an ownership basis, it's part yours as well. :-) The 'battleship' game probably dates from WWI or earlier. It was taught to me by my grandmother...who learned it from her father. He was killed at sea in WWI, as I recall. Keeping with the analogy further...you will of course recall that Winspear drilled the three north shore targets on speculation entirely. There were no indicator minerals in till samples down ice from that area. Hence...yes...Winspear's guns have emerged from their cosmoline cover I suppose. Definitely pre WWII vintage, in that area at least. Regarding the 'Song of the Maidens'. I asked my Russian friends about same...and didn't have a great deal of success. It appeared to strike a chord with one...but he couldn't place the composer. He attributed that to his 'mis-spent youth in the old SSSR'. If I have any success on that 'front', I'll let you know. Regarding share prices. You are no doubt aware of the 'discovery to production curve' for speculative plays. There's an early on peak (about 65% of max) when hype and hope coincide to drive up the price. There's a later drop to about 35%...before a final climb to 100% as production begins. I can't remember the source for that, but there it is. I suspect your impression of WSP's stock price chances are accurate. It will indeed take some unexpected good news to drive the price higher. I would add, however...an additional possibility. That is a bulk sample valuation close to the mini-bulk sample result. I feel the market has now suitably discounted the feeling that the bulk will return a value high...but significantly lower than $343 rock. I sold all my Aber at around $26.50...just down from the peak near $28. Some little birdie suggested it might be appropriate. Something about someone taking a jaunt above Indonesia without benefit of wings. The price promptly dropped to $19 and began it's climb. I went back in with the same number of shares at $20, and watched the price climb back to $22. Last visit to $20, I thought....lol. I did use the latest sojurn under $7 to add to my ABZ holdings. Time will tell on that score. :-) Cheers, WillP ------------------------------------------------------------------------ TopReply Author: DiamondWillie -- Date:1999-02-25 12:16:30 Subject: Specu-lee Specu-la Do you know if there's historically been a price jump when brokerage houses change an exploration stock's recommendation from "Speculative Buy" to "Buy"? I guess what I'm asking/saying is that I sure hope Mr. Market hasn't discounted a mine already, or we could be in for a big disappointment when the bulk sample results come out in the average to good range. Are you going to do an essay on mining methods, strategies, costs, and effect on price? (hint, hint);-) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ TopReply Author: WillP -- Date:1999-02-25 12:34:23 Subject: DiamondWillie: Good Topic! Yes...I've noticed some good blips when words are written by BH analysts...and some for-pay ones as well. Of note would be some delayed price jumps in Aber. A hypothetical situation that occurred in reality a number of times was: Drill results announced. Stock climbs 10%. BH analyst writes blurb...stock price drops 2%. National newspaper reports BH blurb two days later...stock climbs 15%. (Go figure.) Another good one to play with is WSP...but you probably have to be Canadian...or have access to the 'Globe and Mail' or 'National Post'. The big jump from $3 to near $5 was probably fuelled by exposure of Kaiser's and a few others enthusiastic comments. Not when they wrote them...but when they were reported in the press. The same phenomena was probably in evidence on the way from near $5 to $2.50. Check the dates of Kaiser's stuff on "canspecresearch"...and the dates of Stockwatch reporting what Canada's papers were reporting. I haven't done it...but it would be neat to see what had the bigger effect; the actual report, or the national exposure of same. Yeah...I'm going to do exactly as you suggest. Will be fun, I think. My guess is: Right now, the price reflects the 10 year option as outlined in the MRDI scoping study...maybe not fully, though. I'll have to jimmy some numbers around before I decide that one. Stay tuned. :-) Regards, WillP