To: sean sanders who wrote (158 ) 7/3/1999 12:55:00 AM From: Casaubon Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 967
Hi Sean, Thanks for dragging me over here. I own one stock currently. I had been blindly accumulating it for seven years because they do great research. But, research doesn't turn a profit. They finally launched thier first product, late and into a now crowded field, and the reception by wall street was less than friendly. My frustration over this stock led me into TA and risk vs reward studies, as well as option strategies to stabilize my value. The stock is VRTX. I've included some links with explanations of my observations regarding where the stock is at currently using TA. Unfortunately, I don't have graphing software currently. Daily:iqc.com a clear downtrend from the beginning of the year, with a well defined bearish resistance line from the peak in late Jan to the peak in early April. The bearish support line is defined by the low in early Jan to the low in mid april. After the bulls capitulated 4/16 (1087K shares) and 4/22 (621K shares), the "trend reversal" was earmarked via a small hammer line 4/23. The hammer line signalled the end of the downtrend and the beginning of a sideways trend from 4/23 to 6/2, which I have tentatively identified as bottom formation known as the "three river bottom". The most significant event during the bottom formation was the hammer like line seen on 5/28 (221K shares). This high volume (relative to the rest of the bottom formation) candle is a bullish counter attack line, referred to as a "spring", by Steve Nison. The resulting "reversal" from sideways to up was confirmed on 6/3 via the shooting outside the shallow bottoming channel, which closed above the channel, and failed to precipitate selling, thus lending support to the notion that a new bull trend was emerging. That trend has remained intact until today. Today, 7/1, the stock attacked the $25 resistance level on high volume (558K shares), and managed to just close at $25. The price move was less than earth shattering on that kind of volume, but for now the trend is intact. The RSI and stochastics are getting towards the top of the range on this time scale, and the MACD has gone flat. However, on the weekly and monthly time scales some interesting formations are present. weekly:iqc.com five weeks ago a bottom formation formed known as a tower bottom, relative to the candlestick from 11 weeks ago. This also formed a tweezer bottom. The RSI bottomed at higher level than last october and is currently heading up. The stochastics look like they're making a run for the top and the MACD looks like it's just about to turn positive. monthly:iqc.com On this time scale, we have what looks like a morning star reversal pattern, as well as a W bottom formation, relative to last october, where the right side of the W made a higher low. The morning star also constitutes a tweezer bottom. The RSI started up, the %K looks like it is about to cross over the %D (but has not done so yet). The MACD went flat from a previously negative slope. Please throw stones.