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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carl a. mehr who wrote (23069)	2/25/1999 4:01:00 AM
From: puborectalis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Look what's new... The Investor SuperModels By Jon D. Markman Since the start of 1998, the Investor editorial team has created and published a set of strictly mechanical stock portfolios derived from Investment Finder screens. We modestly called them the SuperModels. To monitor our efforts, and learn how you can build and benefit from your own versions, check our regular progress reports and the links to individual SuperModels below. Flare-Out Growth 10 stocks that have rocketed in the past 12 months but faltered recently • Portfolio Today's Picks Redwood Growth 10 high-quality growth stocks • Portfolio Today's Picks Defensive Growth 10 stocks with consistent growth, profitability and dividend yield plus market-beating price gains • Portfolio Today's Picks About the SuperModels Volatility Momentum stocks can be rewarding but also present great risks. Consider them only for the aggressive growth portion of your portfolio. Rebalancing The portfolios will be rebalanced each quarter in 1999. Returns Returns for each quarter are calculated by totaling gains and losses of each portfolio's stocks and dividing by the number of stocks. The models' total annual returns are the sum of the quarters' changes. The Investor 30 To round out The Investor 30, some models feature more than the recommended 10 stocks to compensate for the securities that appear in more than one model. Rebalancing Schedule Qtr. Buy Sell 1 12/30/98 3/26/99 2 3/29/99 6/25/99 3 6/28/99 9/24/99 4 9/27/99 12/31/99 Feb. 25, 1999: Tech '99 best of show -- AOL, eBay and Cisco Over the past four days, BancBoston Robertson Stephens turned the basement of a swank San Francisco hotel into a virtual shopping mall of technology stocks, a gorgeous emporium for public companies promising everything from the mundane (digital postage stamps) to the marvelous (Internet-ready kitchen appliances). In the old days, brokerages like Robby Stephens staged these events to introduce their institutional brokerage clients to their investment banking clients; the gatherings were genteel and hushed. Today, they're still gilded affairs, but with more of a carnival atmosphere. Young companies are more crazed for investors' confidence than ever before, since most are selling a hazy dream of the future rather than earnings from a solid bill of goods. The manic purchase of stocks based on expectations of future returns in exciting new industries without historical foundation is virtually the definition of a financial "euphoria," according to economist John Kenneth Galbraith. And historically, euphorias end very badly. But we own a lot of these stocks in our SuperModel portfolios, nonetheless, because they fit our price or earnings momentum models. So I took the bait on Monday and Tuesday and stalked the halls of Tech '99 to learn more. I'll dump my notebook here, next Wednesday and in following weeks as I turn in my SuperModel updates. Web-everything Robertson Stephens' research director aptly noted in opening remarks that the World Wide Web is "casting a growing shadow." Almost every technology company today is focusing its attention on Web-based applications, Internet infrastructure, communications and connectivity. Your new economy is brought to you by the letter "e": e-business, e-commerce, e-tail, e-payment and the new word for what used to be called a business, the enterprise. Before you say "E-yuck!" consider the example of Cisco Systems (CSCO), arguably the most important company in the networked world today. Once upon a time, Cisco built equipment called routers that connected businesses' internal data networks together. It was a nice niche that offered exceptional growth, but nothing like the opportunities it faces today. The company's goal, according to Executive Vice President Don Listwin, is to restructure the $360 billion world ecosystem of fragmented telecommunications equipment into one that's standardized for data according to Cisco ideals. "We think it's good for us because we are good at leading standards," he said.