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Biotech / Medical : Munch-a-Biotech Today -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Miljenko Zuanic who wrote (213)	2/25/1999 9:22:00 AM
From: Biomaven	Respond to of 3158

Miljenko, Yes, I'm still holding a smallish NXTR position. I agree that NXTR general is an obvious munch candidate, although I'm hoping that (like with AGPH) the market and/or an acquiror will do the math before the spin-off and realize it is undervalued. The bottom line is that, on a continuing basis, NXTR general sheds over $20m in losses a year, which will make it comfortably profitable with revenue growing at over 20% annually - just the sort of (rare) munchable that companies are looking for. If they get their act together, they could easily earn a $1 a share. Given that they've made the decision to spin-off these activities, it is reasonable to classify them as discontinued operations. Doesn't make a whole lot of difference, as the 4th quarter is going to be muddied by all the non-recurring charges related to the spin-off anyway. Mikasome looks like it's advancing as well, which adds to their attraction. Peter

To: Miljenko Zuanic who wrote (213)	2/26/1999 2:37:00 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3158

Well looks like the market has finally discovered NXTR as well - up around 50% in the last week. The interesting thing is that there wasn't much new in their latest announcements. The Ambisome growth rate was pretty consistent with prior quarters, and the R&D savings on the spin-off had previously been mentioned as well. So what changed? Market perception? A leak that it's about to be munched? NXTR was in the "suzbounce" portfolio (bought at just over $8) and sat there for months while the rest of the stocks around it mostly appreciated sharply. If it wasn't a "no-management" portfolio, I would have been sorely tempted to exit the position. techstocks.com I guess the lesson here is that patience is sometimes a virtue, and you can definitely come too early to the party. You sometimes just need faith in your own analysis. (In the case of NXTR, when playing with real money, I maintained a small position but unfortunately never had enough faith to add to it). Of course too much faith in one's own analysis can be disastrous as well - I guess there's still some truth in the old adage "never fight the tape." Peter Two apposite quotes (the second is from memory, so not exact): "Well, I'm right, but the market just won't admit it." - (myself) "I never make the same mistake twice - I just make one of its thousands of close relatives instead" - Victor Niederhoffer