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To: Nicholas Thompson who wrote (8823)	2/25/1999 3:49:00 PM
From: Anthony Wong	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10227

Download A Web Page Via Wireless? Sorry, Don't Have The Time Internet Week TERRY SWEENEY February 22, 1999 Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result is as good a measure of insanity as any. Which leads me to wonder: Is the wireless industry completely crazy? In the past 10 years, vendors of wireless equipment have foisted all kinds of "solutions" on users. Unfortunately, these products have solved very little-the vendors have either misread the market or are hell-bent on recouping R&D investments that might have been better written off long ago like so much bad debt. I'm not talking about wireless LAN systems or the metropolitan area bypass services that ask you to swap out your T1 lines for a big, fat microwave dish on the roof of your office building. I'm talking about connecting itinerant users to some sort of switch or access point by way of radio, probably cellular. Ericsson introduced its Mobitex system in the late '80s, a proprietary mobile data product for which the vendor later opened the API to encourage development and uptake. Then cellular digital packet data (CDPD) followed in the early '90s, which was put into service by operators in this country and around the globe. But neither Mobitex nor CDPD have been able to generate the revenue, minutes of usage or swift uptake enjoyed by cellular voice services. One mobile operator from Finland was overheard on the floor of the Wireless '99 show saying that 30 percent of his network traffic is data. Is that a mass market? If 9.6- Kbps connectivity is enough for the Finns, why not for the rest of us? In recent months we've seen Ericsson touting the PBX as a wireless data switch and pushing a wireless interface to a unified messaging system. In both instances, these products are being positioned as perfect for the e-mail era or the Web page age. But if wireless vendors think they're going to be taken seriously, they've got a fair amount of work to do. As my colleague John Fontana reported last week, there are three areas that need drastic improvement where wireless data is concerned: speed, security and application development. Speed is an obvious problem. If these vendors expect to sell anything, they will have to accelerate connectivity far beyond 9.6 Kbps, even just for e-mail. Let me know how long it takes you to download headlines and graphics from the MSNBC Web site using your CDPD connection-if your patience lasts that long. Or your connection. Even with wired connections, remote connectivity is a dicey proposition, at best. Just like with those mutual funds advertised on television, your results may vary. Equipment, service provider(s) and distance from the local telco switch create a nice little remote access Rubik's Cube. So whether you're dialing in from a hotel near the Atlanta airport or from a home office deep in the bowels of the suburbs, connection speeds can vary wildly. I'm thrilled to pieces when I attain anything above 19.2 Kbps, and if I can sustain the connection for more than 10 minutes, I feel like I've just won the lottery. Still, the Wireless '99 trade show in New Orleans a few weeks ago generated lots of headlines, some of which may give some IT managers reason for optimism. Cisco and Motorola joined forces to develop a protocol that will enable IP traffic to cross all manner of digital cellular networks, and three carriers unveiled tests of wireless IP services: BT said it will work with Microsoft; U S West is testing some Qualcomm equipment, and Nextel is working with Netscape. The presence of Cisco, Microsoft and Netscape at the show guaranteed the industry buzz would get harmonized in the key of IP. But is IP the variable that wireless data transmission has needed to help it penetrate the mass market thresholds? Who knows. Product managers from all the wireless equipment vendors also are quick to point out that standards bodies are working to boost transmission speeds, even at 300-plus Kbps. Still, it's hard to imagine wireless becoming as strategic as Ethernet switching, groupware or browser interfaces. IT managers and their itinerant user base must wonder if wireless data ever will rise above its status as a niche application. Or if they'll all go insane trying to implement the promises of so many vendors. Terry Sweeney is a news editor at InternetWeek. internetwk.com:80/columns/pers022299.htm