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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jopawa who wrote (16665)	2/25/1999 9:21:00 AM
From: jopawa	Respond to of 93625

How Dan Niles became a commodity Hardware analyst discusses Dell, Rambus, Micron Tech By Tiare Rath, CBS MarketWatch Last Update: 6:46 PM ET Feb 24, 1999 NewsWatch SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- BancBoston Robertson Stephens hardware analyst Dan Niles has become a commodity lately. It started with a tremendous call on Dell Computer (DELL) last week. The analyst forecasted that the computer maker's fourth-quarter sales wouldn't live up to the expected figure of $5.4 billion to $5.5 billion. Instead, Niles thought the number would come in around $5.2 billion. When the company reported results just a few days later, Dell recorded revenue of $5.17 billion. See related story. The day it was released, his prediction socked Dell's stock and guided the Nasdaq down 3.5 percent. Niles' calls on stocks have been watched particularly closely since then. "It does up the pressure," he told a small group of journalists at his bank's investment conference Tuesday. "It's one of those calls that you literally live for as an analyst because you know it won't happen again." Not that the analyst, who's been with Robertson Stephens for seven years, isn't confident. "There (were) a lot of clues here," he said about Dell, including the company's unwillingness to do a breakout session at the Goldman Sachs conference and not cutting computer prices when Intel lowered chip prices. Micron Technology Niles also said Micron Technology (MU) can post better gross margins -- or profit as a percentage of sales -- than Intel "by a long shot." During its glory days in 1995 before the chip industry started to tank, Micron Technology had gross margins of 70 percent. Niles said during the company's presentation that his $200 price target "over the next couple of years" was "very achievable." Niles said that "things are definitely tightening in the semiconductor market" and have been better since the middle of last year. The "good news" is that people are still questioning if the industry's out of the downturn, he said, keeping industry-watchers on edge. Following Intel (INTC) also led Niles to decide Rambus' stock could look better. Monday, he said Intel would give dates for the roll-out of chips using Rambus' (RMBS) high-speed memory technology. The stock shot up -- even though Intel announced an expected delay. Intel is "notorious for missing timelines," he said. "I'm shocked as anybody that the stock was up 20 in two days," he said of Rambus. Other analysts also made positive comments about the stock and Rambus' relationship with Intel. See related story. Niles suspected heavy short-covering on Rambus, however, driving the price of the stock higher. "That pain is pretty intense," he said. But the analyst said Rambus has good potential because it helps feed the demand for "faster, smaller, cheaper," electronics. He introduced Rambus at the conference the day after releasing positive comments on the company. See Renegade Reports. Tiare Rath is a reporter for CBS MarketWatch.