Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wolfdog2 who wrote (1838)	2/25/1999 10:59:00 AM
From: billy d	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10280

I totally disagree with your comparison of SEPR vs. AMZN. SEPR has patented everything they have done and it seems quite obvious to me that the collaborations with big pharma is verification of its strategy. AMZN, on the other hand, is in a low margin, easy to get into field where they already face stiff competition from Barnes and Noble and Borders. The only comparison I would make is that the earnings are a bit away for both companies but my wager is on SEPR due to their patents and validity of their products. By the way, are you short SEPR or just playing the voice of reason? Don't take offense but I'd prefer those who are short posting their views only because I don't think any board needs a father figure telling them to be careful without something at stake with this company.

To: wolfdog2 who wrote (1838)	2/25/1999 11:25:00 AM
From: RCMac	Respond to of 10280

>>In fact I dare say that SEPR (the stock, not the company) is the Amazon.com of the biotech world.<< Wolfdog, I don't think the comparison is apt. With AMZN it is very hard to see when, or even if, the company is ever going to make any money in an essentially low-margin business with very little in the way of barriers to entry, let alone enough to justify recent stock prices. In contrast, for SEPR rather huge earnings are pretty clearly visible beginning in 2001 and accelerating dramatically in 2002 and after, and the risk is pretty low that projected earnings of $9-14 share in 2003 will be too optimistic -- more room for upside surprise, I think. Not that we haven't come far and fast, or that there won't be volatility -- Forbes' and David Maris's sort of focus on near-term earnings will worry lots of investors, who will take profits -- but it is hard to poke holes in the SEPR story if you look at the likely earnings from its diversified fistful of ICE's and the pretty low risk that they won't be realized, at least mostly. -- RCM

To: wolfdog2 who wrote (1838)	2/25/1999 12:05:00 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 10280

Wolfdog2, I think the reason that there was not much comment on the Forbes' article is that it was remarkably superficial, and contained no new facts or analysis that the board doesn't already know. It is most decidedly not news that SEPR is losing money now and will for a while yet, and that it has little in the way of current revenues. The only "news" in the article was the claim that: Sepracor won't see royalties for awhile, and they're likely to be smaller than hyped. Lilly and Schering are finding their own ways to extend the life of their blockbusters already I have no idea what he is talking about here, and I strongly suspect he's just plain misinformed. The key to understanding SEPR is to realize that these dramatic projected earnings five or so years out are actually fairly conservative, and that they have as much upside uncertainty as downside. Sure things can go wrong or be delayed in a few programs, but equally there are lots of programs that are simply not being counted at all yet. SEPR is unique in that the risks in its drug development program relate more to labelling, marketing and pricing than to safety and efficacy. Your comparison to Amazon is instructive. I don't believe anyone has the slightest idea whether Amazon will be hugely profitable in 5 years or not. That is the big difference between SEPR and Amazon. I do agree that there is currently a fair amount of short-term risk in SEPR because of its recent appreciation and volatility. I've personally never attempted to predict short term price moves, and I'm not about to start now. I do believe that SEPR remains an extraordinarily attractive long term (multi-year) investment. BTW, I am delighted that we now have a skeptic (albeit a lonely one) among our ranks. Preaching only to the other true believers gets a bit boring <G>. Peter