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To: SargeK who wrote (42425)	2/25/1999 9:17:00 AM
From: SargeK	Respond to of 164684

Signs of Asian Economic Recovery Korean Industrial Output Posts Biggest Gain in 4 Years in Recovery Sign Korea Industrial Output Posts Biggest Gain in 4 Years (Repeat) (Repeats to fix typographical error in 1st paragraph.) Seoul, Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea's industrial output posted its biggest gain in almost four years in January and private consumption expanded for the first time in 15 months, indicating the faltering economy is on track to expand. Output grew at an annual rate of 14.7 percent -- the largest gain since July 1995, led by robust exports of semiconductors and transportation equipment. It was the third consecutive monthly gain and compared with a 4.8 percent increase in December. The National Statistical Office said more Koreans turned optimistic about an economic turnaround, evidenced in a 2.8 percent increase in combined wholesale and retail sales, the best measure of demand in the economy. Spending on big-ticket items such as automobiles jumped 129 percent in January from a year ago. Sales of machinery and telecommunications equipment were also brisk. Last year, consumption shrank by a monthly average of 12.5 percent. ''Now we can say for sure the economy has embarked on the expansionary cycle,'' said Song Keum Young, an NSO official. ''Because indictors for consumption and investment are also showing steady growth.'' Growing Optimism Several other key indicators also point to recovery, fueling expectations the Korean economy would grow at least 2.0 percent this year against an estimated 5.5 percent contraction last year as forecast by the IMF. Domestic machinery orders, a gauge of corporate investment, jumped 39.6 percent in January from a year earlier, led by the shipbuilding and automobiles sectors. It compared with a 0.8 percent rise in December and an average 30.5 percent decline for the entire 1998. Shipments of goods for domestic use also increased for the first time since November, 1997, expanding at an annual 6.1 percent rate in January against a 10.9 percent fall in December. Those for export rose 23.2 percent, compared with 25.4 percent. Inventories in January fell another 16.6 percent from a year ago. The depleted stockpiles will allow companies to increase output, helping to accelerate an economic pick-up. The NSO said the economic outlook is continually improving. The index of leading indicators, a prediction of economic activity six to seven months ahead, rose for a fourth consecutive month. The index advanced 8.3 percent last month from a year ago Message 8020241 K

To: SargeK who wrote (42425)	2/25/1999 11:09:00 AM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Thanks for the post - nice summary of your research. I am no expert on the oil and oil service stocks but this confirms what I understand: Although proven reserves and inventories remain high, a rebound in Asia is taking place and oil production is at the price level of being capped at the well-head. As with previous oil gluts and price declines, it finally reaches a level in which supply is reduced - it is no longer profitable to pump it. An associate follows this sector more closely than I. His talks with oil exploration and development companies indicates that many new domestic wells have already been capped and the industry is at the bottom. The growing concensus is that oil prices will at least remain stable through the summer and should start to pull up by the end of the year. I agree that timing of a resurgence is difficult but now is an excellent time to start buying the oil sector. Markets usually start to move up prior to major shifts. With the blue chips and tech sector being priced beyond the upper extremes of historical norms while the US economy remains intact and foreign economies show signs of a slow but clear recovery, the oil and some other cyclicals will attract investment as investors continue to rotate out of the Internut and other speculative sectors. Good job . . . I hope some of the raging Internet bulls take heed and diversify their portfolios - as Bezos suggested ". . .investors should only have a small portion of their investments in Amazon."