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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bucky Katt who wrote (3825)	2/25/1999 9:40:00 AM
From: KonKilo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

TPEG news: biz.yahoo.com eom

To: Bucky Katt who wrote (3825)	2/25/1999 10:16:00 AM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

Well, I was totally wrong about CDNW interest in the new ad campaign. Fortunately I was not wrong about the stock holding at 17 rock bottom. Not only did the investment world snub their noses. . .the company failed to follow thru with after Grammy hype, like I expected. . . which would have made shorts cover and would have been good for a couple of points near-term, IMO. So CDNW shifts from a near-term play to about a 2 to 4 week swing trade, based on the merger with NTKI. My feelings about this marraige have still not changed. Look at the revs in the quarterly of both companies. . .very impressive. Mergers generally take time and money. . .The surviving company must "digest" the smaller one. . . but these are not factories with 20 years of pension plans, etc. These are both INTERNET ONLY companies with offices and warehouses and portal deals. What is there to digest on this merger? Change some office space, move some workers around, but not much expense. The long-term picture, to me is even more attractive, but takes a bit of an iron stomach. . . from these levels it is not bad, but some bought CDNW too high [above 25]. I got family some NTKI at around 6, so it is hard to lose there. Traders won't play CDNW / NTKI at all, because they are joined at the hip. One won't move without the other. . . not sure how that applies, but that is what the big traders tell me. The merger was promised BEFORE March 31st. The ad last night for CDNow mentioned strolling down CD Now's Music Boulevard [if I heard right thru the noise]. . .Music Boulevard belongs to NTKI. . .so there is already "official" common branding. I am hoping to see this merger happen sooner than later. . .they started the thing in October. . .and like I said, there is not all that much to merge between these two E-tailers. So today is the last trading day of February and the merger was promised "before" the end of March. . .so I would imagine we should start seeing some speculators moving in. The charts showed a good sized increase in volume in CDNW yesterday, which nudged me into the plunge. Much of that was no doubt in anticipation of the Grammys. . . So, I think that we are at the bottom on these stocks leading up to the merger. I think that on some particular day, it will don on everyone that the merger is near and the stock will pop, IMO. From that point until the merger, I would expect some slower gains and gradual covering of longer term short positions. I am expecting the merger to take place with CDNW at 25 and NTKI at 19. After the merger, there will just be CDNW. . .and I expect it to be perceived as a monster in the e-commerce industry that "suddenly" everyone wants in their portfolio. I could see it roaring for a while at that point, then settling back when some party pooper drops a big shoe and sends internets back. I think that the exit point would be just as the newly merged company gets daytraded. . . selling into the buying strength. Rande Is