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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ken Katz who wrote (8113)	2/25/1999 11:32:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

Ken, I think that your premise is quite right over time horizons of 5 to 10 years. We need not go to the Japanese market, our own DOW was stuck for 16 years in the range of 500 to 1000 between 1966 and 1982. What finally broke the range , IMHO was the launch of the PC and as a result the "information" revolution that ensued and the growth of a sizeable middle class outside of the western world. We could easily go into another such period where the DOW will be stuck between 5000 and 10000, and I believe now is the "dawn" of that period. My reasoning is that the economic dislocations in Asia and Japan/China in particular are drastically slowing the growth of the world's middle class and as a result the growth in consumers. I do not expect to see another 15 years (I am thinking in term s of 5 to 7 years and believe we are already within that period) in that range, because eventually both Asia and the former Soviet block will resume their growth. I also expect another mini economic revolution to be launched sometime in the next 5 to 10 years. Zeev