To: Mary Cluney who wrote (48877 ) 2/25/1999 1:23:00 PM From: Merritt Respond to of 132070
MC: <<<But, from the rest of the people on this thread, I don't understand their rationale. Are they just rooting for a meltdown for its own sake?>>> Sometimes it may appear that there's something of a "cheerleader" attitude for a market crash, but I think that's more a matter of someone wanting to see their research prove out, rather than any desire to see others damaged. I doubt that anyone truly looks forward to a strong market decline (they'd have to have a sadistic nature), but it would be foolish to ignore the possibility...or growing likelihood. Whether it does or doesn't isn't under our control, so all we can do is try and profit by the seeming inequities in given equities...or the market in general, at times. <<<However, I am not getting anything out of this thread that I could understand that would help me to achieve this - when that day (the bear market)comes.>>> MB's put strategies are a good place to start, or even finish. Check the SI archives for his "investing in tech with belt and suspenders." Personally, I also use index options to a greater degree than MB, but then my time horizon is shorter and my trading more frequent, I believe. <<<The bull market is not my religion, but currently we are in a bull market.>>> A good argument can be made for the market having topped out in January, what with interest rates moving up, and the lack of breadth in the latest attempt to test the Jan. highs. Unfortunately, no one knows the future...but with all the negatives in the world economies, and with our market priced for a perfect environment, it does seem prudent that one protect their investments with protective puts (if one is extremely bullish). Just consider the cost for out of the money puts as an insurance premium. If you're more bearish, then consider liquidating some of your positions...or researching some of the stocks that MB has bought puts on, and then buying some yourself - or not, as your own work dictates. Asia, Latin America, Russia, and England have already entered a recessionary period, or worse, and I doubt that Europe is too far behind...if all the rest of the world enters a recession then I don't see how the U.S.'s economy can stay healthy...if you consider it healthy at present. Personally, I hate the idea of a major meltdown and what it would do to our national morale, not to mention individual disasters/hardships - but that doesn't mean I won't, or shouldn't, try and profit from it...only that I won't gloat should it occur.