Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (48914)	2/25/1999 3:41:00 PM
From: BGR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie, Would you like to comment on this post? TIA! Message 8033585 -BGR.

To: Earlie who wrote (48914)	2/25/1999 4:38:00 PM
From: Peter Singleton	Respond to of 132070

Earlie, < In most crashes, the following things usually occur and in this order: 1. Commodities crater 2. Producers (benefitting from lower commodity prices), either maintain or even increase production. Over-production leads to price wars. Plant closings and lay-offs ensue. 3 World-wide shipping slows 4. Bond prices fall 5 Stock prices tank. 6. Economy contracts 1 through 4 have already occurred.> I don't agree that number 4 has happened in a meaningful way. The recent upticks in the bond market are merely the stones crying out <g> .... the market is still blithely ignoring the wash of liquidity inflating the bubble. Peter

To: Earlie who wrote (48914)	2/25/1999 4:43:00 PM
From: Eggolas Moria	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

<<5 Stock prices tank. 6. Economy contracts >> Had this discussion today at lunch. Missing from this is the severe deflation in the real estate sector from extreme levels. Japan had that in the late 1980s when the implied value of their real estate was $13-15 trillion. Whether we have a similar situation is quite debatable. I would argue that we don't and that the prerequisites of a systemic contraction/crash is not yet in place. Unless of course you are talking about something of a much lessor magnitude.