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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cathedra who wrote (7035)	2/25/1999 7:02:00 PM
From: stockycd	Respond to of 99985

All, With the recent posts about the TYX and interest rates, I have done a humble analysis... 1. The DJIA and the yield on the 30yr bond (TYX/10) have peaked and valleyed together, with the bond leading since the middle of 1998. The one divergence was around the first of November 98 when the bond continued to rise. 2. The TYX will have to retrace (based on today's close) to at least 54.33. Having said that, I don't have significant resistance until 57.85 (which would be nosebleed levels). I think it will start to pull back this week. 3. The sharp sell in the DOW JONES 20 Bond Avg is very troubling for the intermediate term. I think we are in the zig/zag, whipsaw, whirlwind of the start of a bear market (or at least correction) in bonds which will send the markets lower and interest rates up over time. I am still bullish for the month of March, but will have to become very cautious toward the end of March, depending on the direction of the TYX, ect. Personally, I would rather trade in a bear market than in a bull market. My opinions only, Chris