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Gold/Mining/Energy : ZINC The base metal. News and Views. Symbol Zn -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ray Hughes who wrote (126)	2/25/1999 2:32:00 PM
From: jack hampton	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3270

I'm with you Ray. For the following reasons..... 1) A long list of mine closures over the next 5 years. Some biggies such as Mt. Isa (original mine and Hilton), Sullivan, Polaris, Selbaie, Hellyer, Heath Steele etc. etc. 2) The next tier of producers cannot justify the capital at current prices. 3) Glencore has established pricing power through their aquisitions. These are the guys I suspect are behind the squeeze. 4) Noticed that Kidd Creek has not committed to #4 or D mine yet? Their window of opportunity is gone IMO. 5) Some established operations are in a deep slide. Should be interesting to see how long Brunswick Mining can hang in there. Broken Hill is on the decline as are others such as Rosebury, Golden Grove etc. 6) Name me the new Canadian production replacing all this? Century in Oz is big but they got silica problems. That is why they bought Savage since their plant only takes low iron feed and if they own it>> no silica penalties. 7) If Mt. Isa gets the Fisher mine to 2.5 M tonnes per annum in two years, I'm a monkeys uncle because there is a big graphitic shear zone running through the guts of the best orebody. Dilution city. 8) Can zinc head for oversupply when the concentrate is not there?? 9) Anyone noticed that Noranda is essentially out of smelter feed in 6-7 years time? They're having troubles with their acquisition plans right now since they are finding that their is nothing worth investing in. 10) Hey Kevin, ever heard of anything called a cost curve?

To: Ray Hughes who wrote (126)	2/25/1999 3:04:00 PM
From: Claude Cormier	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3270

Ray, <<1)any metal can, and does, move on its own supply/demand/technical merits against the direction of other base metals.>> You are right. Look at Palladium/Platinum. <2) the purported technical analysis consists only of a price chart containing absolutely no analysis of relative strength, moving averages, momentum, stochastics, etc. >> The long term trend has been down... but recently technicals have been improving.. Is it only a bear market rally..Time will tell. <<3) China IS difficult - it is exporting far less zinc to the west that is desired. >> Right here again. <<4) Increases in demand consumption gains plus/minus any inventory hoarding by users) could vastly outweigh the supply gain. Consumption would increase by 323,200 tonnes through year 2000 if it grows at 2% in each of 1999 and 2000, as seems likely. Another 160,000 tonnes of zinc would be demanded if zinc consumers, now reported to have low inventory, sought to add just one week's worth of consumption as a hedge inventory. >> If all goes well with the economy.... But what if we enter a global depression in 2n half 99 and Y2K... Consumption could fall by an equal amount or more ? IMO, this is the wildcard. CC