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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charles Tutt who wrote (14472)	2/25/1999 3:00:00 PM
From: Alok Sinha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

I don't think so, but I also did not think that it would trade as low as 92.5 in the week prior to Feb option expiration. The market is like a yo-yo nowadays, and who knows how much volatility lies ahead. What I was trying to say was that I don't mind getting assigned with an effective price of 92. BTW, wanna bet this rally fizzles out before end of day. If it is sustained, we may see a big move up tomorrow. Regards Alok

To: Charles Tutt who wrote (14472)	2/26/1999 11:50:00 AM
From: Alok Sinha	Respond to of 64865

Dear Charles, The wild swings in the market have made a believe out of me that for most tech stocks, price fluctuations +/- 20% are quite likely over a 3-4 week period. Most large cap techs are swinging around 5-7% everyday. When there is so much uncertainty regarding value (magnified by day trading and momentum plays) I think the market has seen its top for the near term. I was nervous about US rates in early Feb alongwith $/Yen exchange rate movements and Jap rates. While analysts have continued to hype up stocks with little or no earnings (the Internet sector), Jan was also a month of unprecedented run-up in large cap stocks on promise. IBM, SUN, INTC and MSFT, I can understand. Micron, Applied Materials, Compaq, HWP and MOTOROLA I can't - except for hype and froth. The process of these stocks coming back to earth will bring down other companies too, but I regard that as a useful process to return some sanity to the markets. The best companies to be in are those that have a track record of earnings consistency, and provided reasonable guidance that it will be maintained. If you can get that at reasonable levels (CSCO I would consider to be very richly valued), you buy on dips. (look into ADIC - they were up 30% yestrday when they beat est. by 10c) Another negative for the tech - Disk Drive sector typically leads tech downturn (and that sector has been brutalized since mid-Jan). I was lucky to bail out of KMAG, SEG (in Jan) and QNTM (last Monday)at good prices. But when those stocks start showing techincal weakness after tonnes of good news, it does not spell well for the overall market. Sonki and I have had this ongoing debate over market valuations since late Jan. I don't believe we are done and I wouldn't be surprised if Dow tests 9000 , and NAS 2000. Just random musing sitting at home. Regards Alok