To: HG who wrote (4953 ) 2/25/1999 4:59:00 PM From: Dave Dickerson Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 19700
Hard to predict the next few days, as my perspective is longer than that. I'll will try to put a few ideas down. Bullish 1. recent confer. 5 or more IPO's coming out in next 24 months, with some coming out shortly.Packed house gasping when David told them that companies return of $1.9 billion on a total investment of $39 million, a 4800% return goto talk.techstocks.com for more details. 2. 3/11/99 earnings out with first call est. of -.26/s being beaten easily, probably with earnings between $1-2/share. 3. general upflow with recovery of net stocks 4. other news releases Bearish 1. interest rates going up, although if you had over $1 billion in cash,wouldn't you be interested in higher interest rates while you are waiting for new investments to come along. 2. General bad news from some global area. 3. cnbc pronouncements about net bubble. 4. sometime during 1999,maybe last 1/4, a general downturn to Mkt. from y2k nerves(maybe -15%) If I hadn't been fully invested,buying intermediate term call options say Sept '99 at $90, at the recent cash price lows of $82 looked real good to me. Adding all these things together,IMHO from now until 3/11/99 I feel the upside potential is 75%, with the downside risk of 25%. Remember the beta is 2.6, so you can get a $5 downside hike in 20 minutes, like it did on 2/24/99 in the last 20 minutes at the close. So if you are dealing with margin calls,or money you don't feel comfortable seeing negative returns,albeit for the short term, you can get yourself into trouble. Long term, my goal for the end of 1999, my goal for CMGI is at least $150( up 300% for the year, as we started at $50 on 1/1/99, and at least one stock split 2 for 1 in '99.) I ask that you do your own research and decisions. Good Hunting DAVE DICKERSON