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Technology Stocks : Ampex Corporation (AEXCA) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TraderAlan who wrote (5833)	2/25/1999 4:35:00 PM
From: K.Martin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17679

What would a combine AEN-TVWEB IPO be worth? BCST currently has a market cap of 2.5 billion. Assuming AXC owns 50% prior to IPO and sells 10%, retaining 40% of the capitial stock in its treasury. This does two things it adds cash to the company any inhances shareholder value. If this is done a warchest will be the least of our problems. As a note if the IPO retained a value 75% of BCST that would be 1.87 billion. The IPO would generate 375 million cash before ezpenses and AXC's 40% would be worth 750 million equating an AXC common stock value of at least 15/share. I truely believe that in 5 years we will look back on BCST, AXC, and a couple of others and realise that they are to the internet what ABC,CBS, and NBC were to TV. good luck all.

To: TraderAlan who wrote (5833)	2/26/1999 12:47:00 AM
From: Ed Perry	Respond to of 17679

<< Where I find technical analysis most undependable is with very low priced stocks, like AXC. I personally don't trade stocks this low in price anymore because of that. >> Thanks for the response and clarification and for the participation on the AXC discussion thread. You may be the first author and professional market technician to date. A hearty "Welcome aboard" to you. Your comment regarding "low priced stocks" is intriguing. Is your cut-off $5 or $20/sh? I have often felt that the most fruitful arena for the venturesome individual investor is in the below $5/sh. Not because the price is cheap, and the small player can load up on the implied leverage, but because information flow is poor and there is generally no following by analysts or the media. I think these last factors translate into market inefficiencies capable of being exploited by the patient and diligent investor. To my way of thinking, some of the keynotes of market efficiency is the rapid and broad dissemination of information along with a highly liquid market. These are the very conditions which enable the popular kind of TA signals (oscillators, moving averages, trade "setups" etc. to fire signals in a rapid and consistent fashion. There is no waiting around for a high flying situation. The signal fires, and the move is complete in a matter of hours or days. The situation is most pronounced in the futures markets where complete major bull and bear cycle movements can wrap up in the time frame of several quarters. On the other hand, the low priced stocks, especially when orphaned and shadowed, have no such fast time luxury. Signal formations evolve over a period of weeks and months and can even wither away. The biggest external shock becomes the company quarterly report which itself is anticipated and discussed weeks in advance. However, that very slow pace can be turned into an advantage for the resourceful individual investor. Here, there is the opportunity to almost leisurely explore the company, it's markets and it's competitors. What better way to obtain a check and balance system for interpretation of false or mis-leading TA signals? Or for that matter, what better way to act with extreme confidence when such signals line up with the underlying fundamentals - actual or anticipated? Also, take the matter of money management. Higher priced positions mandate the use of reasonably placed stop loss orders. While my postings always advocated NOT using stop loss orders, I knew that, since I was operating under 3.00/sh at the time, the effective stop loss was 0.00/sh. Not using a stop, I was able to absorb AXC's "volatility" between 3.00 and .69 and thereby fully concentrate on building up a sizeable averaged down position. Furthermore, at say 1.50/sh, for a modest sum of $15,000, I could add 10,000 shares at a clip and for the same dollar amount, much more at .81/sh. In sum, I did not even need to consider the use of margin in building a sizeable position base. Now, I do not even need it. During the long slide, what I did find reliable was larger area patterns, rectangles, wedges and the like and also observations regarding changes in trading volume along with absence / presence of wave patterns. Support and resistance levels seemed to play a minor role relative to trading tone and area pattern. Also, I never did measure proportions in retracements and advances. Since trending was pronounced, these proportions must have been active. In any event, the time measure of these observations here was in weeks and months and my realization outlook is measured in years (two or three). This brings me to my final point. Over $5/sh (or is it $20/sh for a NYSE fallen angel?), there is in place an active and exciting arena for a mind boggling transactions volume. Everything as we are led to know and believe (both fundamental and technical) "seems" to work extremely well. Below certainly $5/sh there is very little commotion, transaction opportunity and surcharge possibility. Here, the participant must do all the work and wait months and years to see the outcome - but, in my opinion, for the implied leverage and the managed risk, for that effort, the accruing profits are most spectacular. Ed Perry

To: TraderAlan who wrote (5833)	3/2/1999 1:08:00 AM
From: B. A. Marlow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17679

How do you do, TraderAlan. Wasn't familiar with your work when I referred to the recent market environment as a "coiled spring." Unaware that my simplistic analogy was on a collision course with a trophy TA "term of art." Not a TA specialist so my comments were micro-economic in nature and not meant to be interpreted as TA commentary per se. Specifically, I believe I was referring to the effect of market maker/specialist activity in taking out stop loss/stop limit orders, covering shorts and building inventory. In my experience, such activity often has the cyclical and observable behavior of a coiling spring. After reading your piece on "Coiled Spring," I'd say the TA explanation is often consistent with the activity to which I referred. The issue of "contra-trend," while not my characterization, would simply suggest that a market maker-driven retracement can signal a short-term rebalancing of supply and demand followed by continuing upside momentum. Will spend some time at your site. Looks interesting. BAM