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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Allen Furlan who wrote (6111)	2/25/1999 8:33:00 PM
From: Freedom Fighter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78497

The Fed's Stock Model As of the close today the Federal Reserve stock model says that the S&P500 is 27.7% overvalued. I don't use this model because I am focusing on individual businesses and I think it has some flaws that don't capture all the valuation issues, but this is the biggest overvaluation I have ever seen it flash. More interesting is that it uses IBES earnings estimates for the next 12 month's "operating earnings" (before one time charges) as one of its inputs. The last estimate from IBES I saw was $52. That's an expected mid-teen advance in earnings from 1998. If we get a more normal 5%-7% the overvaluation is well over 30%. If earnings are flat to down it's huge. If it has any use it gives us an idea of what "Al" might be thinking. Wayne Crimi members.aol.com

To: Allen Furlan who wrote (6111)	2/25/1999 8:45:00 PM
From: Mike 2.0	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78497

What ERP vendor was Nash Finch using? And was the implementation being done by the ERP vendor or a 3rd party SI? Finally exactly why were they implementing a new system: new synergies, productivity, yada yada, or simply for Y2K's sake? Also Nash Finch's next 10Q/10K should make for interesting reading. Please keep me informed of what you come up with. You do raise a salient point...what is the litigation/collection risk for some ERP vendors and/or SIs for an ERP install gone bad?

To: Allen Furlan who wrote (6111)	2/25/1999 9:21:00 PM
From: Bob Rudd	Respond to of 78497

Allen - Evaluate probable success of ERP: Sometimes you can get it from someone posting on a board. Yahoo's boards are better for that since there's no barriers. Often employee's post with considerable honesty since they can do so anonymously. Locate one or two such posters on the board and ask. Also, in company documents, especially annual chairman's letter, if you see any form of the word "challenge" used in the same section as discussion of system implementation..look out. If it's used more than once sell without hesitation.