Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (38359)	2/26/1999 1:02:00 AM
From: dfloydr	Respond to of 95453

Great, Zack's has botched the FLC report. Under earnings surprises they have the following: Company .........................Acutal.....Estimated......Shortfall R&B FALCON CORP (NYSE:FLC - news) 0.03 $0.18 -83 Where did they get that .03?

To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (38359)	2/26/1999 9:21:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Is anyone watching the E&P's as an - "It's the price of Oil - Stupid'' indicator ? ...should be; Salomon Smith Barney just upgraded the sector: biz.yahoo.com ***per Douglas Fant's comments (this is the 3rd, or 4th time - maybe someone will catch on soon ?) -- <<With current onshore rig rate do not expect gas reserves to be completely replaced>> ...and what happened yesterday ? - that endorses Doug's observation - which is a mathematical reality - not an emotional prognostication, or hope by the way... Per CNBC - A major Energy House dramatically raised their 2000 Nat Gas price target for the year avg to $ 2.95 !!! due to the lack of drilling production to support merely average demand draws. Look forward for your indicators here and you can arrive to the party with confidence and profit handsomely. This is a great time to be buying the low debt, low cost Nat Gas producers and/or those who may be acquirers/consolidators, or acquirees. fwiw - I keep APA APC BR NBL on my quote/portfolio screen on every portfolio - tracking screen I have. I want to see support in these E&P's to feel confident in buying Service/driller stocks on dips and into selloffs. If the E&P's blow off in lockstep to Driller & Service stocks - then I ''aint'' buying unless there is some other compelling underlying fundamental reason to do so. All in all, we have a very good window of opportunity here to make well hedged, risk/reward bets imho. We have strong technicals - be they EW as pointed out by Gary & others, Bollinger Band violations, Stochastic buy signals and Chart technicals of our now virtually impervious (those were the words CNBC used !) ''quadruple bottom.'' If one is a longterm ''value'' investor - it rarely gets any better than this. It's not like one is buying headlong into literally ''uncharted waters'' - as it was for those galant souls who bought into the Total Market Crash in Sept. We have literally fundamental & technical support ranges virtually cut into stone here with a 4-peat bottom trading range of late. Add to that; all of the ''early signal'' indicators that are starting to show. Sure - ''Demand'' has been the keyword of late. However; Crude prices require at the least just one side to be ''flat'' and the other side to be ''addressed'' managed, or to be recovering for Crude prices to improve. You do NOT have to have positive simultaneous supply demand scenarios. When you do - you then have a roaring Bull-Crude market. If that's what you're waiting for - ''leave now'' - as you are NOT a true cyclical commodity, or value investor ! The "M0-Mo'' game is an entirely different game and that ''aint'' my bag... For shareprice appreciation to occur from present levels, we merely need the ''forward looking expectations'' of the ''drivers'' to higher Crude/Natural Gas prices to be positive. Currently, we have at worst - ''flat'' demand indicators. Asia is no longer declining and the conservative arguement can be presented that it has even moved upward from actually bottoming ! Asia may just now be actually rearing her head towards more than just mild upside demand surprises. Ala~ South Korea's mere 2 month revision of -2% growth to +1% growth, we have success stories popping out all over Asia. Yes the ''Bears'' keep shouting - ''it's all about Japan - Stupid'' and to that I say, of course Japan is ''THE" catalyst to business as normal Globaly; but if one starts ''Doing the Math'' As the Phillipines, S Korea's and Thailand's start showing upward growth revision after upward growth revision - their combined numbers, coupled with an indisputable worst case - ''bottom'' in Japanese demand; presents an ever growing demand driver that is slowly crossing to Global demand numbers that can no longer support $10-$12 Crude Prices Globally at present production numbers. Production is actually the key ''early'' indicator to be watching imho. We can only ''manage'' the demand side to a minor degree. Remember - we can immediately cut production, but we can't immediately ramp up demand. However, with the Global reflation, International Interest Rate Cuts coordinated by Greenspan & Rubin et al - demand, growth, liquidity & Inflation will once again ride into town not unlike the "Four Horsemen". The factoring of this Global pump of money into the system has not been seen and will not start to show it's "Inflationary'' face for a few months. But watch other sub-early indicators such as the curriencies of Commodity Exporting Countries like Canada & Australia for upside Inflationary Commodity signs - PS they are allready showing up ! The ''Old World - Smart Money'' is starting to point out these indicators and they are selling Big Caps and rotating to the papers, the chemicals. other Cyclicals and Energy Stocks. For anyone to discount the move by Waren Buffet here into Chemicals, is to miss one of the World's Great early indicators imho. Yes; Mr. Buffet is also of the - ''arrive early to the party crowd.'' The signs are here people, right here - right now ! One has to be a bit more sophisticated than to just watch the OSX sector prices ramp up, or to wait for $15 Crude to make money here. Most of the ''real money'' and most importantly imho, the ''safe'' money will all ready have been made; when the rest of the world acknowledges that yes indeed; The 'ole Oilpatch is once again the place to be... PS - did I mention that there' some type of meeting in a few weeks that evidently could have some type of ''to the Moon - Alice'' type of effect as well...?