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To: brian h who wrote (1542)2/26/1999 11:16:00 AM
From: Jim Lurgio  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 34857
 
Brian,
OK. It's official , the news article was bogus and CDMA is alive and well and will be marketed in China . The Bloomberg article you afforded claims 30,000 users in China on CDMA. How many GSM users are there ? It also states Bejing's decision may hinge on which technology becomes the 3G standard. What will that standard be ? It also says :If China bets the future on the wide-band CDMA mode, known as WCDMA, which is being developed in part by Nokia and Ericsson, the U.S. and Korean suppliers of CDMA will lose out. It also says :The Ministry of Information Industry has an incentive of its own to push the WCDMA protocol: if CDMA succeeds instead, it will dilute the MII's dominance of China's telecommunications, which it controls through China Telecom.
If all the above is fact it looks like CDMA at this point is pretty iffy in China and at this point also risky . But then again it was also not given much of a chance in the USA. I also agree that Nokia is currently a high flyer but Tero has been on board since the plane took off just as you have been aboard the Q for a long time. Looking at both companies I see no risk with Nokia at all as they are licensed to make any type of hand set they want and wouldn't be affected by any standard issue. Q on the other side of the coin faces the possibility of being affected by some standard change that would leave the Q dead in the water. Time certainly will resolve these issues and one only has to hope he's on the right plane. When the 3g issue gets settled next will b3 4g.

Good Luck

Jim

The Chinese government would also have to decide how to compensate more than 30,000 people already using CDMA phones in the areas where the networks are operating, Samsung's Bae said.

Some telecommunications analysts, such as Shanghai-based Duncan Clark of BD Associates, say Beijing's decision may hinge on which technology it believes will become the international standard for the next, so-called ''third generation'' of mobile phones.

If China bets the future on the wide-band CDMA mode, known as WCDMA, which is being developed in part by Nokia and Ericsson, the U.S. and Korean suppliers of CDMA will lose out, Clark said.

The Ministry of Information Industry has an incentive of its own to push the WCDMA protocol: if CDMA succeeds instead, it will dilute the MII's dominance of China's telecommunications, which it controls through China Telecom.

WCDMA, on the other hand, uses frequencies not controlled by the Chinese military, allowing the MII to cut the army out of the equation, Clark said.

Brian H.