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Pastimes : J Doe #13 Off-topic Non-Specific Tech Stock Ponderings -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Charlie Finley who wrote (1429)2/26/1999 6:51:00 PM
From: Johnathan C. Doe  Respond to of 1819
 
I'd consider a secondary play in QNTM Charlie; if it hits 14 1/2; that would be a good entry point. I'm all for VLSI; I saw an upgrade last week or earlier this week; did it get one today as well? Things are starting to look interesting, but the trend is still down, so this could be the beginning; not the end and so what is your rush to buy? You've wisely stayed in cash; don't be so quick to invest. Wait and you'll see lower prices and you can really clean up.



To: Charlie Finley who wrote (1429)2/26/1999 7:04:00 PM
From: Johnathan C. Doe  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1819
 
Wow; VLSI up nearly 5 points today; damn!!!!!



To: Charlie Finley who wrote (1429)2/27/1999 2:05:00 AM
From: Johnathan C. Doe  Respond to of 1819
 
Charlie; this is the list we want to be familiar with and ready for as we play the market in 1999. These are many of the next watch list stocks we should be focused on. At some point; I'm going to bury myself in analyzing the tech market again for several months and come up to speed on everything new we should be focused on. I'm familiar with many of the companies in the list below and so I have a head start to some extent.

BTW; were you familiar that Internet 2 is now off the ground. Most of my area is on the list re: universities and so I'm sitting right on top of Internet 2. My area will have it first as it is offered up to the public at some point in the next 10 years. Internet 2 is going to be the beginning of the internet in terms of it being the real deal; the thing that can perform at the speed and bandwidth to do all the potential things it only hints at today. Internet 2 is going to be TV quality video and digital sound ready with almost instant program and content download ability. Internet 1 is a bike compared to an 8 cylinder car coming. Of course; Internet 1 will keep me happy somewhat for a while with DSL or cable modems. By the time Internet 2 hits; I'll have just finished learning all my programs on my current computer anyhow!!!

Private Companies In The IPO Pipeline

The BancBoston Robertson Stephens Tech99 Conference ended on Thursday. One difference
between this conference and some of the other investment bank sponsored conferences is the
large the number of private companies that presented. While the institutional managers at the
conference cannot yet invest in the private companies, it gives them some familiarity with what
is coming. Most of these private companies are "in the pipeline" on their way towards
becoming public companies. Exact IPO dates are not revealed at these presentations, but
expect to see a fair number of these companies in the first half of this year.

IPO Glut Coming?

If this seems like an awful lot of private companies on the IPO track, it is. We didn't list all of
the companies at the conference, and there are even more that weren't at the conference. On
Monday, Robertson Stephens Analyst Keith Benjamin stated that he feels there is "glut of
IPOs" coming, particularly in Q2.

In addition, another investment banker told us that the total market value of IPOs coming in Q1
and Q2 of 1999 exceeds the market values of all IPOs in 1998, 1997, and 1996 combined.
We weren't able to confirm whether this is true, and aren't even sure how this could be known
for all upcoming IPOs. But even if it is wrong factually, it does accurately reflect the fact that
there are a lot of companies rushing to the public capital market as fast as possible. What effect
this will have on the markets, and whether the markets will be able to absorb them all, remains
to be seen.

We've listed below some of the private companies that presented. The year the company was
founded is listed at the end of the description. Companies that have already filed registration
papers for the IPO are identified, and you can learn more about them from the respective
prospectuses.

Internet Ecommerce Companies

Chemdex Ecommerce for life sciences companies. Business-to-business portal for life science
product procurement. 1997

Digital Island Leases space on "overnet" a secure, reliable layer on top of the public internet.
Also provides outsource capabilities for business-to-business ecommerce. 1995

DigitalThink, Inc. Web-based training programs for computer professionals. Sells to
corporate clients. 1996

FlashNet Internet access products for the disadvantaged user community. Registration papers
have been filed.

InsWeb Portal for insurance sales over the web. Sells Home/Car, Life, Health. Free to users,
receives lead generation fee for all qualified leads delivered to insurance companies. No
commission on sales. Has proprietary instant qualification algorithm that access driver records
and health records over the net. 1995

Stamps.com Sells electronic postage over the internet. Licensed by US Postal Service. In
beta testing. 1996

Valley Media Distributor of CDs, Video, etc. over the internet, but at wholesale level.
Customers are sellers of CDs or Video, whether on the net or physical store. Provides
complete fulfillment outsourcing as well. Registration papers already filed.

Value America Internet technology retailer. Computers, office products, phones, etc.
Registration papers already filed.

Virtual Vineyards Sells gourmet food and wine over the internet. 1994

WorldRes Outsources web reservation capabilities to hotels and resorts. Paid on transaction
basis. 1995

Internet Technology, Software and Hardware

DMW Ecommerce technology that adapts to customer input. Sells product to businesses
developing ecommerce solutions. 1997.

E.piphany Sells products to make ecommerce customizable on a one-to-one basis with
customers. Integrates all corporate information needed by a customer to a single interface for
web interactions. 1997

Employease Employee information and distribution products over the intranet. Complete
system for use by HR departments to create, manage, distribute employee information. 1996

Fantastic Corporation Software for delivery of multimedia content to PCs and settop boxes.
Brings ability to deliver TV quality video and interactivity without broadband access, if
companies software is resident at delivery and receiving end. 1996

ICTV Brings broadband access to TVs without need for new settop box or cable modem.
Uses infrared keyboard to control service. Sells head-end delivery equipment and receiving
equipment, but system is non-proprietary. First rollout of service to 25,000 subscribers in St.
Joseph Minnesota occurred in February of this year. 1991.

NetObjects Tools for building web sites. Fusion is main product. Registration papers already
filed.

Sonoma Makes ATM multiservice broadband products for LAN to WAN connectivity. 1997

TrinTech Technology for secure electronic payments over the internet. Complete payment
system from internet capture to vendor payment. Sells engines to companies developing
ecommerce businesses. 1987

Enterprise Software Companies

Active Software Enterprise integration software: allows multiple vendor systems in a
corporation to talk to each other. Middleware. Links disparate systems together using data
broker to determine routing. 1995

Agile Software Internet based Java application for supply chain optimization. Links vendor
systems and manufacturing, passes data between companies over internet. 1995

Bottomline Technologies NT based payment processing system. Registration papers already
filed.

Crossworlds Middleware: integrates enterprise software. ERP, supply chain, ecommerce.
Supports most widely used enterprise packages. 1996

EXE Technologies Supply chain management for warehouses. Allows web access to
database for info access anywhere. Registration papers already filed.

Extricity Software Value chain software: supply chain and internal (distribution) optimization
software for businesses. Uses internet to pass data from vendors and suppliers to the business.
1996

OnDisplay Middleware for integrating existing ERP systems with the Web. 1996

Talus Revenue management software. Uses proprietary algorithms to forecast revenues from
historical customer behavior, and allows what-if scenarios for planning. 1997

Vitria Middleware: integrates disparate enterprise software systems. 1994

Network and Telco Technology

Bookham Low cost fiber optic manufacturing system. 1989

Cerent Products for easy transition of a network from cable base to fiber-optic base. 1997

CommTech Operations support system (OSS) for telcos. Specialize in service delivery and
fault management. 1990

Daleen Billing and customer support software for telcos. 1989

Efficient Networks Sells DSL customer premise equipment to telcos. 1993

Netro Wireless broadband equipment for sale to telcos. Already in place in Europe, but with 5
mile max transmission. Working on longer distances. Goal is to replace the local loop with
wireless transmissions from central office to user. 1994

Vertical Networks Equipment to provide voice/data integration for small businesses and
branch offices. 1996

Other Technologies

Channel Point Consulting services and software products for selling of insurance and benefits
packages. Sells to insurance industry to automate sales process to businesses. 1996

Nuance Speech recognition software, with security verification features. 1994

POET Holdings Object oriented databases for use in embedded systems. Also has content
management software for integrating databases with web applications. 1992

SiRF Component supplier for GPS (Global Positioning System) products. 1995

Vadem Component supplier for hand-held mobile wireless devices of all kinds. Makes Clio,
PC companion under own label. 1983